Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Yen holds near 3-1/2-year low after BOJ's radical stimulus

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FOREX-Yen holds near 3-1/2-year low after BOJ's radical stimulus Apr 5th 2013, 05:38 Fri Apr 5, 2013 1:38am EDT * Dollar/yen pares gains in choppy trade led by JGB market * BOJ pledges to pump $1.4 trillion into economy * Yield-hungry Japanese investors could boost foreign bond markets By Sophie Knight TOKYO, April 5 (Reuters) - The yen touched a 3-1/2-year low on Friday after suffering its biggest one-day tumble since late 2008 in the previous session, when the Bank of Japan surprised markets with a radical campaign of monetary expansion to attack deflation. The dollar rose as high as 97.20 yen on trading platform EBS, a level not seen since August 2009. The greenback later pared its gains to trade flat at 96.32 yen due to profit-taking in choppy trading. Traders said a sharp rebound in Japanese government bond yields prompted the reversal, weighing on the dollar against the yen. "The whole market is just completely JGB-related now. And it's just before the weekend, so it's an adjustment, people are taking profits," said a trader who declined to be identified. "It's a chaotic situation but there's still a firm tone to the market. People will still buy on dips against the yen. They're saying '100 yen, here we come'," he added. The greenback soared 3.6 percent against the yen on Thursday after the BOJ unleashed intense monetary stimulus, promising to inject about $1.4 trillion into the economy in less than two years, a gamble that sent bond yields plummeting as prices rose on the prospect of massive BOJ bond-buying. Governor Haruhiko Kuroda, chairing his first policy meeting, committed the BOJ to open-ended asset buying and said the monetary base would nearly double to 270 trillion yen ($2.9 trillion) by the end of 2014. "They've committed to expanding the monetary base at quite a significant pace, which has had a very big impact on the market," said Bill Diviney, currency strategist at Barclays Capital in Tokyo. The yen pared losses against major currencies after dropping steeply earlier in the session. Against the euro, it was a 0.1 percent firmer at 124.50 yen, after losing 4.3 percent on Thursday, its biggest one-day fall against the single currency since November 2008. Analysts says European bonds could benefit as the Japanese yield curve has already flattened on expectations of the BOJ purchasing long-dated Japanese government debt, which could pique domestic investors' hunger for higher yields abroad. The BOJ's new plan means it will buy about 7 trillion yen ($73 billion) of bonds per month, equivalent to about 1.4 percent of gross domestic product. By comparison, the U.S. Federal Reserve is buying $85 billion of bonds per month, about 0.6 percent the size of the economy. "Domestic investors are likely to be encouraged by the BOJ's promise to stay accommodative for quite some time," said Diviney of Barclays, adding that he expected U.S. assets to see the most significant boost from Japanese investors' forays abroad. Japanese retail investors have already begun sniffing out riskier assets. Subscriptions for an emerging markets equities fund launched last week for assets in countries such as Turkey, Indonesia and Thailand reached nearly $1.6 billion, the highest for a single launch since December. Analysts say that the dollar has space to run higher against the yen now that it has regained a foothold above the 96 yen level. Barclays foresees the dollar firming to 103 yen in the coming weeks, while Societe Generale sees that level as a long-term target that should be reached by the first quarter of 2014. " stay bearish yen for now. External forces, namely softer US data and euro area-led deterioration of risk conditions this spring, may well temper the JPY sell-off in Q2," said a Societe Generale report. U.S. DATA Some investors remained cautious on Friday as they awaited the U.S. nonfarm payrolls report later in the day. A disappointing result could keep U.S. bond yields depressed, fueling expectations of more bond-buying from the Federal Reserve, which would weigh on the dollar. Data showing weaker-than-expected growth in the U.S. private-sector employment and initial jobless claims at four-month highs last week has led to worries that the labour market is losing momentum. Against the dollar, the euro slipped 0.1 percent to 1.2926 after a sharp reversal on Thursday. After first dropping to a 4-1/2-month low around $1.2745, investors pared back their bearish bets against the single currency, prompting it to rise 0.7 percent by late U.S. trade. European Central Bank President Mario Draghi said on Thursday the bank stood ready to act if growth continues to languish. He also affirmed his commitment to keeping the euro zone intact and said the Cyprus bailout was not a "template" for future rescues in the currency zone. Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints

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