Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Dollar stung by dovish Fed, hovers near 1-mth low

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FOREX-Dollar stung by dovish Fed, hovers near 1-mth low Mar 27th 2012, 03:30 Mon Mar 26, 2012 11:30pm EDT * Bernanke's comments seen keeping alive QE3 hopes * Dollar struggles, yen also hit as risk appetite improves * Commodity currencies benefit from better sentiment By Masayuki Kitano and Ian Chua SINGAPORE/SYDNEY, March 27 (Reuters) - The dollar held near a near one-month low against a basket of major currencies on Tuesday after Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke signalled that a supportive monetary policy would remain and kept alive hopes of more monetary stimulus for the U.S. economy. The dollar index was at 78.954, stuck near a low of 78.870 plumbed overnight when Bernanke said the central bank's policy of very low interest rates was needed to reduce unemployment and made it clear he was in no rush to reverse course. "His argument that unemployment was largely cyclical rather than structural caught the market's imagination," said Sebastien Galy, strategist at Societe Generale. "It suggests QE3 is on its way or at least a very dovish stance until such a point as unemployment falls enough," he said, referring to another round of bond buying or quantitative easing. On Monday, Bernanke's comments coupled with an unexpected rise in German business sentiment gave risk appetite a boost, lifting the euro and weighing on the safe-haven yen. The euro dipped 0.1 percent from late U.S. trade on Monday to $1.3348, having hit a one-month high of $1.3368 on Monday on trading platform EBS. The single currency faces resistance at $1.3373, the 76.4 percent retracement of its late February to mid-March fall. Moves in U.S. Treasuries could be key for the dollar at this juncture, said a trader for a major Japanese bank in Singapore. If buying of Treasuries gains steam and bond yields fall in the wake of Monday's Bernanke's comments, the dollar could face more pressure against currencies such as the euro, he said. Concerns about peripheral euro zone debt, however, could pose a risk to this view, the trader added. "If the market's focus shifts to Spain, we could see a return to investors shunning risk and buying the dollar," he said. Worries are growing about Spain after a government setback in regional elections, making Prime Minister Mariano Rajoy's task of pushing through harsh spending cuts more difficult. YEN STEADIES AFTER DROP Against the yen, the single currency was steady at 110.60 yen, not far from a 4-1/2 month high of 111.43 set last week. The dollar held steady at 82.84 yen, having pulled away from Friday's trough of 81.97. There was talk of dollar-buying by hedge funds as well as dollar-buying by Japanese importers, but also talk of dollar selling interest by Japanese exporters above 83.00. Japanese importers have been steady dollar buyers over recent weeks as their purchases of fossil fuels have surged after most nuclear reactors in Japan went offline in the wake of the Fukushima disaster. Bernanke's comments lent support to commodity currencies, which were hit hard last week by growing fears of a hard economic landing in China. The Australian dollar dipped 0.2 percent to $1.0508, giving back some ground after rising about 0.7 percent on Monday, but stayed well above last week's low of $1.0336. "As participants cautiously price more QE back into markets, the commodity currencies - the Australian, Canadian, and New Zealand Dollar - are likely to attract attention given their high yields relative to the U.S. dollar," said Christopher Vecchio, currency analyst at DailyFX. Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints

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