Tuesday, April 24, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-U.S. housing data, Dutch debt sale boost euro

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-U.S. housing data, Dutch debt sale boost euro
Apr 24th 2012, 20:05

Tue Apr 24, 2012 4:05pm EDT

  * Euro rallies but outlook clouded by political risks      * Dutch auction sees reasonable demand      * U.S. housing data sparks modest hope, risk appetite          By Steven C. Johnson              NEW YORK, April 24 (Reuters) - The dollar slipped against  the euro on Tuesday after data suggesting U.S. home prices may  be stabilizing spurred investors to seek higher returns beyond  U.S. borders.         Europe's common currency also got a boost after the  Netherlands saw solid demand at a debt auction a day after a  budget dispute toppled the government.        But buyers failed to push the euro out of the broad  $1.30-$1.35 range that has prevailed for most of the year. SSome  traders said Europe's ongoing debt crisis would cap gains.            Late in New York trading, the euro was at $1.3183, up  0.2 percent, after earlier rising as high as $1.3218.         Traders said a pair of U.S. housing market reports stirred  hope that a drawn-out decline in home prices may be nearing its  end. The closely watched S&P/Case-Shiller index showed prices  rose slightly for the first time in 10 months.        "If we do see a lessening of downward momentum in housing,  that's promising for U.S. consumer spending and ultimately for  the global economy," said Karl Schamotta, senior strategist at  Western Union Business Solutions in Calgary.          "That will cause people to shift funds out of the  low-yielding U.S. dollar and into foreign assets that offer  higher yields," he said.              The Federal Reserve is expected to reiterate its intent to  keep benchmark U.S. interest rates near zero through 2014 when  it ends a two-day policy meeting on Wednesday.        The dollar also fell 0.2 percent to 0.9111 Swiss francs   and 0.2 percent to 0.9888 Canadian dollars but  edged up 0.1 percent to 81.29 yen.            The Australian dollar hit a two-week low against the U.S.  dollar after soft inflation data fueled expectations of interest  rate cuts by the central bank..                         EURO GAINS MAY BE FLEETING        The euro, while stronger, was still stuck in the price band  that has prevailed for most of 2012.                  Steven Englander, global head of FX strategy at Citigroup,  said data suggested sales of foreign assets by euro zone  residents helped prop up the euro in late 2011 and early 2012,  as did foreign buying of euro zone debt when yields stabilized.       Such repatriation has helped keep the yen strong in recent  years despite a weak Japanese economy.        But Englander said counting on those trends to continue  underpinning the euro is risky, noting that Europeans do not  hold as many foreign assets as the Japanese do.       "One would tend to think this would work for a while but not  forever," he said.            Brown Brothers Harriman strategist Mark McCormick said the  collapse of the Dutch government could complicate European Union  efforts to ratify a new fiscal compact designed to tighten  budget rules and keep countries from falling into debt.       The cause of crisis in the Netherlands - inability to agree  on an austerity budget involving deep spending cuts - is also  keeping investors from pushing the euro too high.             "If Holland can't agree to tighten its belt, then it's going  to be very difficult to keep up the momentum for cuts in the  more troubled countries," Schamotta said.             The Netherlands is one of the euro zone's few remaining  AAA-rated economies. Ratings agency Moody's said it was sticking  with that rating for now but said the government's collapse was  credit-negative..             What's more, not everyone is convinced that things are  looking up for the U.S. housing market, meaning Tuesday's modest  recovery in investor risk appetite may not last.              Yale economist Robert Shiller, co-creator of the  S&P/Case-Shiller index, said it might be a long time before home  prices approach their pre-crisis levels.              "I worry that we might not see a really major turnaround in  our lifetimes," Shiller said on Reuters Insider.  
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