Sunday, September 30, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: RPT-GLOBAL ECONOMY-A new quarter's dark clouds and silver linings

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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RPT-GLOBAL ECONOMY-A new quarter's dark clouds and silver linings
Oct 1st 2012, 06:00

Mon Oct 1, 2012 2:00am EDT

* Data to show brisk headwinds but some signs of hope

* Fiscal cliff fears may show up in business surveys

* Main central banks likely to stay on hold this week

By Alan Wheatley, Global Economics Correspondent

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The darkest hour is just before dawn, the old saying goes. Of course, that's also when your house is most likely to get burgled.

The same mix of new hopes and old fears defines the global economy heading into the fourth quarter.

Those who glimpse a bright day breaking are looking past a grim flow of data to a stronger 2013. The U.S. housing recovery is well entrenched, stock markets have had a good three months and both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have ripped up the rule books to prop up their economies.

But those alert to lurking dangers retort that unprecedented central bank activism is impotent when the world is in a liquidity trap; households and governments will be paying down excess debt for years to come.

A raft of business surveys in Europe and America, leading up to the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday, is likely to provide grist for both mills.

Julian Callow, chief European economist for Barclays Capital in London, said central banks were addressing a significant number of tail risks, but other threats lingered.

"It's not a climate in which we can feel especially gung-ho about the economic recovery," he said.

According to 80 economists polled by Reuters, non-farm jobs probably rose by 115,000 in September, barely more than the tepid 96,000 figure in August that prompted the Fed to launch a third round of asset purchases to bring down bond yields.

But a strike by Chicago teachers will have depressed the headline number. Stripping it out, the private sector is forecast to have added 130,000 workers, up from 103,000 in August. Not great, but heading in the right direction.

A pair of surveys by the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is likely to paint a similarly blurred picture. Economists expect a small pick-up in manufacturing to be offset by a dip in services.

The reports will be scrutinised especially closely this month for signs that businesses are growing nervous about a huge package of spending cuts and tax increases that will take effect automatically in January unless politicians agree how to cut the budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

"Uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy is the single biggest near-term threat to the global recovery," Fitch Ratings said.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch added that the 'fiscal cliff' was the No. 1 concern of its investors. Some economists think a lack of clarity over the outcome is already being reflected in weak orders for durable goods. The tightening would be equal to 4 percent of annual output.

Yet J.P. Morgan said 52 percent of the corporate clients it surveyed globally replied that the issue was making no difference to their investment plans; none reported a 'significant impact'.

CENTRAL BANKS TO SIT ON THEIR HANDS

Europe is no more clear-cut.

Final September surveys of purchasing managers are likely to confirm the euro zone is mired in recession.

But Berenberg Bank said that, thanks to the ECB, the 17-nation bloc was close to an inflection point; rebounding growth in narrow money pointed to renewed growth by spring at the latest.

Similarly, Deutsche Bank expects the euro zone economy to bottom out before the end of 2012 as the credit crunch eases. By this time next year, output could be expanding at a 1 percent pace.

"But with a poor economic outlook and still considerable political uncertainty, we see a high risk of a return to serious tensions in EMU (economic and monetary union) in the coming months," the bank's economists said in a report.

After a dramatic pledge last month to buy the bonds of struggling euro zone members that agree to tough reforms, the ECB is expected to hold steady when its policy council meets on Thursday, according to economists polled by Reuters.

They also expect no change this week from the Bank of England, although both central banks are likely to ease further by year's end.

In Australia, too, money markets are pricing in a rate cut, but economists think the central bank, which meets on Tuesday, will wait a while to pull the trigger.

The same goes for the Bank of Japan. Fresh from unexpectedly topping up its asset-buying and loan programme on Sept. 19, the BOJ is likely to hold off for now on further easing at a policy meeting that ends on Friday.

Ultimately, optimists say, determined central banks will prevail. Flooding their economies with cheap money will revive risk-taking and investment, generating demand and jobs.

But if, as British economist Andrew Smithers contends, monetary policy is "useless" under current conditions, the outlook is bleak.

For then only fiscal policy can engineer a recovery, yet the United States, Japan and Britain are no longer able to add to their deficits, while Germany and China do not want to, he said.

"The world may muddle through, but the chances of a serious and prolonged recession are exceptionally high," Smithers, head of an eponymous London consultancy, concluded in a report.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro slips to three-week low as Spain fears persist

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro slips to three-week low as Spain fears persist
Oct 1st 2012, 06:01

Mon Oct 1, 2012 2:01am EDT

* Euro's technical tone weakens-strategist

* Investors increased dollar-short positions last week

By Lisa Twaronite

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a three-week low on Monday after an audit of Spain's banks failed to quell concerns about the country's progress towards a bailout needed to shore up its public finances.

Investors also continued to await the outcome of Moody's rating agency's latest review of Spain's sovereign rating, which may see it downgraded to junk status.

Weak economic data from Japan, China and other parts of Asia also sapped investors' appetite for risk, to the benefit of safe-haven currencies.

An independent audit released on Friday showed Spain's banking sector would need 59.3 billion euros in additional funds to cope with an economic downturn but Spain said it would ask for only 40 billion euros in European aid for its banks.

"Basically, the result of Spain's bank audit was not bad news in itself, but worries remain about that country and about Greece as well," said Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange for State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.

Inspectors from the "troika" of international lenders - the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and European Commission - are scheduled to return to Athens this week to assess Greece's progress on reforms.

Two German magazines reported on Saturday that Greece will receive its next tranche of international aid despite budget shortfalls and slow fiscal progress because the euro zone wants to prevent a Greek exit.

The euro stood at $1.2821, down about 0.3 percent from Friday's late U.S. levels. Early on Monday, it fell as low as $1.2804, breaking below support at its 200-day moving average at $1.2823.

Technical indicators for the euro suggest a decline, said Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"Over the last two weeks, we have been observing a deterioration in the tone of the major foreign currencies against the dollar," Chandler said in a weekend note to clients.

"This has continued over the past week and looks set to continue."

The cross of the euro's 5-day moving average below its 20-day moving average indicates a downtrend, he said. The latter is now at $1.2884 and the former is now at $1.2872.

A break of the $1.2775-$1.2800 area would signal another 1 to 2 percent decline, while a move above the $1.3000-50 area would be needed to signal any new leg higher, Chandler said.

Resistance is seen at $1.2960, the 38.2 percent retracement of its Sept. 17-27 slide.

Despite the euro's weaker technical tone, currency speculators boosted bets against the dollar in the latest week to the highest in more than a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The euro also skidded about 0.4 percent against the yen, falling to 99.88, not far from a two-week low of 99.64 hit on Thursday.

The dollar was down about 0.2 percent against the yen but off a more than two-week low of 77.43 yen hit on Friday, changing hands at 77.87 yen.

Market reaction was muted to news that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda tapped Koriki Jojima, a senior lawmaker in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, as the country's new finance minister in a cabinet shakeup. Little is known about Jojima's views on monetary and currency policies.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment released on Monday showed big Japanese manufacturers expect the dollar to average around 79.06 yen in the fiscal year through March 2013.

The tankan survey showed that big manufacturers' mood worsened in the latest quarter and they expect it to keep sagging, dragged down by weak Chinese and European demand.

Data on Monday showed China's official factory purchasing managers' index rose to 49.8 in September from August's 49.2, which was the lowest since November 2011. The figure was in line with expectations but stayed below the expansion threshold of 50, indicating continued contraction in activity.

Unease about Spain's situation as well as lacklustre Chinese data pressured commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar slipping about 0.3 percent to $1.0346, after hitting a three-week low of $1.0327.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro slips to three-week low as Spain fears persist

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro slips to three-week low as Spain fears persist
Oct 1st 2012, 04:14

Mon Oct 1, 2012 12:14am EDT

* Euro's technical tone weakens-strategist

* Investors increased dollar-short positions last week

By Lisa Twaronite

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a three-week low in early Asian trading on Monday, after an audit of Spain's banks failed to quell concerns about the country's progress towards a bailout needed to shore up its public finances.

Investors also continued to await the outcome of Moody's rating agency's latest review of Spain's sovereign rating, which may see it downgraded to junk status.

Weak economic data from Japan and China also sapped investors' appetite for risk, to the benefit of safe-haven currencies.

An independent audit released on Friday showed Spain's banking sector would need 59.3 billion euros in additional funds to cope with an economic downturn but Spain said it would ask for only 40 billion euros in European aid for its banks.

"Basically, the result of Spain's bank audit was not bad news in itself, but worries remain about that country and about Greece as well," said Kimihiko Tomita, head of foreign exchange for State Street Global Markets in Tokyo.

Inspectors from the "troika" of international lenders - the International Monetary Fund, the European Central Bank and European Commission - are scheduled to return to Athens this week to assess Greece's fiscal progress.

The euro stood at $1.2821, down about 0.3 percent from Friday's late U.S. levels. Early on Monday, it fell as low as $1.2804, breaking below support at its 200-day moving average at $1.2823.

Technical indicators for the euro suggest a decline, said Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"Over the last two weeks, we have been observing a deterioration in the tone of the major foreign currencies against the dollar," Chandler said in a weekend note to clients.

"This has continued over the past week and looks set to continue."

A likely cross of the euro's 5-day moving average below its 20-day moving average would confirm the downtrend, he said. The latter is now at $1.2884 and the former is now at $1.2871.

A break of the $1.2775-$1.2800 area would signal another 1 to 2 percent decline, while a move above the $1.3000-50 area would be needed to signal any new leg higher, Chandler said.

Resistance is seen at $1.2960, the 38.2 percent retracement of its Sept. 17-27 slide.

Despite the euro's weaker technical tone, currency speculators boosted bets against the dollar in the latest week to the highest in more than a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The euro also skidded about 0.5 percent against the yen, falling to 99.84, not far from a two-week low of 99.64 hit on Thursday.

The dollar was down about 0.2 percent against the yen but off a more than two-week low of 77.43 yen hit on Friday, changing hands at 77.88 yen.

Market reaction was muted to media reports that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has decided to name Koriki Jojima, a senior lawmaker in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, as the country's new finance minister in a cabinet shakeup expected later on Monday.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment released on Monday showed big Japanese manufacturers expect the dollar to average around 79.06 yen in the fiscal year through March 2013.

The tankan survey showed that big manufacturers' mood worsened in the latest quarter and they expect it to keep sagging, dragged down by weak Chinese and European export demand.

Data on Monday showed China's official factory purchasing managers' index rose to 49.8 in September from August's 49.2, which was the lowest since November 2011. The figure was in line with expectations but stayed below the expansion threshold of 50, indicating continued contraction in activity.

Unease about Spain's situation as well as lacklustre Chinese data pressured commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar slipping 0.4 percent to $1.0336, after hitting a three-week low of $1.0327.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Japan PM names lawmaker Jojima as finance minister

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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Japan PM names lawmaker Jojima as finance minister
Oct 1st 2012, 04:19

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro slips to three-week low as Spain fears persist

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro slips to three-week low as Spain fears persist
Oct 1st 2012, 00:29

TOKYO | Sun Sep 30, 2012 8:29pm EDT

TOKYO Oct 1 (Reuters) - The euro fell to a three-week low in early Asian trading on Monday, after an independent audit of Spain's banks failed to quell concerns about the country's progress towards a bailout needed to shore up its public finances.

An independent audit released on Friday showed Spain's banking sector would need 59.3 billion euros in additional funds to cope with an economic downturn but Spain said it would ask for only 40 billion euros in European aid for its banks.

Technical indicators for the euro suggest a decline, said Marc Chandler, global head of FX strategy at Brown Brothers Harriman in New York.

"Over the last two weeks, we have been observing a deterioration in the tone of the major foreign currencies against the dollar," Chandler said in a weekend note to clients.

"This has continued over the past week and looks set to continue."

A likely cross of the euro's 5-day moving average below its 20-day moving average would confirm the downtrend, he said. The latter is now at $1.2883 and the former is now at $1.2868.

A break of the $1.2775-$1.2800 area would signal another 1 to 2 percent decline, while a move above the $1.3000-50 area would be needed to signal any new leg higher, Chandler said.

The euro stood at $1.2813, down 0.3 percent from Friday's late U.S. levels. On Monday, it fell as low as $1.2804, breaking below support at its 200-day moving average at $1.2823.

Resistance is seen at $1.2960, the 38.2 percent retracement of its Sept. 17-27 slide.

Despite the euro's weaker technical tone, currency speculators boosted bets against the dollar in the latest week to the highest in more than a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The euro also skidded 0.4 percent against the yen, falling to 99.89, not far from a two-week low of 99.64 hit on Thursday.

The dollar was slightly lower against the yen but off a more than two-week low of 77.43 yen hit on Friday, changing hands at 77.95 yen.

The Bank of Japan's quarterly tankan survey of business sentiment released on Monday showed big Japanese manufacturers expect the dollar to average around 79.06 yen in the fiscal year through March 2013.

Market reaction was muted to media reports that Japanese Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda has decided to name Koriki Jojima, a senior lawmaker in the ruling Democratic Party of Japan, as the country's new finance minister in a cabinet shakeup due to take place later on Monday.

Unease about Spain's situation pressured commodity currencies, with the Australian dollar slipping 0.3 percent to $1.0345, moving back toward a two-week low of $1.0328 reached on Wednesday.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro, oil fall on Spain, growth worries

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro, oil fall on Spain, growth worries
Oct 1st 2012, 00:25

Sun Sep 30, 2012 8:25pm EDT

* MSCI Asia ex-Japan down 0.2 pct, Australia down 0.1 pct

* Nikkei opens down 0.6 pct

* Euro, Aussie fall, while risk aversion lifts dollar index

* China official PMI expected at 0100 GMT

* China, Hong Kong, Seoul markets closed for holiday

By Chikako Mogi

TOKYO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The euro and oil prices fell on Monday as uncertainty about Spain's bailout and concerns over slumping demand due to a slowdown in global growth weighed on investor sentiment.

Several Asian markets are closed for holidays on Monday, including China, Hong Kong and South Korea, keeping activity subdued.

Investors will wait on China's official purchasing managers index, expected at 0100 GMT, for clues about the country's economic outlook. Analysts expect a reading for the index, which tracks mainly big firms, of 49.8 in September, up from August's 49.2.

"Another sub 50.0 reading will weigh on risk appetite, particularly given the reluctance of Chinese authorities to announce fresh stimulus measures," said Westpac Institutional Bank in a note.

On Saturday, the HSBC China Manufacturing purchasing managers index, which tracks mainly smaller private sector firms, showed overall factory activity shrank for an 11th consecutive month in September.

While the 47.9 final index level was a tad above a flash 47.8 reading, the data suggested China's economy has almost certainly suffered a seventh straight quarter of slowing growth.

Bank of Japan data showed on Monday that sentiment among big Japanese manufacturers worsened in the third quarter from the previous quarter, hit by a steady deterioration in export demand as Europe's debt crisis simmers and China's economy slows.

Japan's Nikkei stock average opened down 0.6 percent, extending Friday's 0.9 percent decline.

The MSCI index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan inched down 0.2 percent, with the Australian market down 0.1 percent.

U.S. crude fell 0.8 percent to $91.49 a barrel and Brent fell 0.5 percent to $111.81.

The euro fell 0.3 percent to $1.2810 to its lowest in nearly three weeks early on Monday. Risk-sensitive currencies also fell, with the Australian dollar down 0.2 percent to $1.0349, while the safe-haven dollar was bid. The dollar index, measured against a basket of key currencies, added 0.2 percent early on Monday.

EYES ON EUROPE

An independent audit on Friday showed Spanish banks will need a total of 59.3 billion euros ($76.3 billion) in extra capital to beef up their strength.

The result was in line with market expectations and was applauded by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund, but uncertainty over when and whether Spain will seek external aid kept investors nervous.

Credit rating agency Moody's was due to review Spain's debt grade by the end of September. It currently has Spain on one notch above junk with a negative outlook.

Greece, another source of market jitters, resumes talks with its international lenders this week for a bailout needed to avert bankruptcy and a possible euro zone exit. Two German magazines reported on Saturday Athens will receive the aid despite budget shortfalls and slow progress on reforms because the euro zone does not want the country to leave the euro.

"All of this suggests a range trading environment with a mild positive bias," said Sebastien Galy, currency strategist at Societe Generale in a note.

A slew of central bank policy meetings this week will kick off with the Reserve Bank of Australia on Tuesday, followed by the ECB, the Bank of England and the BOJ, potentially deterring investors from making big bets.

Euro zone and U.S. manufacturing surveys are due later on Monday but the key this week is Friday's U.S. nonfarm payrolls, the first jobs data after the Fed's latest easing.

A report on Friday showed business activity in the U.S. Midwest contracted in September for the first time in three years, underscoring the fragility of the economy.

Currency speculators boosted bets against the U.S. dollar in the latest week to the highest in more than a year, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

Over the past week, investors shifted money into bond funds and sharply cut back on new money committed to stock funds amid renewed concerns about the Spanish debt crisis, data from EPFR Global showed on Friday.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Japan business mood worsens on global slowdown - BOJ tankan

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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Japan business mood worsens on global slowdown - BOJ tankan
Sep 30th 2012, 23:56

TOKYO | Sun Sep 30, 2012 7:56pm EDT

TOKYO Oct 1 (Reuters) - Big Japanese manufacturers' sentiment worsened in the third quarter from the previous quarter, a closely watched Bank of Japan survey showed, hurt by a steady deterioration in export demand as Europe's debt crisis simmers and China's economy slows.

The headline index for big manufacturers' sentiment was minus 3 in September, down from minus 1 in June and matching the median forecast of economists, the quarterly tankan survey showed on Monday.

Big manufacturers expect conditions to hold steady over the next three months, with the index for December seen at minus 3, compared with a median forecast of minus 5.

The survey also showed big firms plan to raise their capital spending by 6.4 percent in the financial year to next March, compared with a median forecast for a 5.5 percent increase.

The sentiment indexes are derived by subtracting the percentage of respondents who say conditions are poor from those who say they are good. A negative reading means pessimists outnumbered optimists.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: TABLE-Foreign brokers set to sell Japanese stocks

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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TABLE-Foreign brokers set to sell Japanese stocks
Sep 30th 2012, 23:14

Thomson Reuters is the world's largest international multimedia news agency, providing investing news, world news, business news, technology news, headline news, small business news, news alerts, personal finance, stock market, and mutual funds information available on Reuters.com, video, mobile, and interactive television platforms. Thomson Reuters journalists are subject to an Editorial Handbook which requires fair presentation and disclosure of relevant interests.

NYSE and AMEX quotes delayed by at least 20 minutes. Nasdaq delayed by at least 15 minutes. For a complete list of exchanges and delays, please click here.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL ECONOMY-A new quarter's dark clouds and silver linings

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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GLOBAL ECONOMY-A new quarter's dark clouds and silver linings
Sep 30th 2012, 19:00

Sun Sep 30, 2012 3:00pm EDT

* Data to show brisk headwinds but some signs of hope

* Fiscal cliff fears may show up in business surveys

* Main central banks likely to stay on hold this week

By Alan Wheatley, Global Economics Correspondent

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The darkest hour is just before dawn, the old saying goes. Of course, that's also when your house is most likely to get burgled.

The same mix of new hopes and old fears defines the global economy heading into the fourth quarter.

Those who glimpse a bright day breaking are looking past a grim flow of data to a stronger 2013. The U.S. housing recovery is well entrenched, stock markets have had a good three months and both the Federal Reserve and the European Central Bank have ripped up the rule books to prop up their economies.

But those alert to lurking dangers retort that unprecedented central bank activism is impotent when the world is in a liquidity trap; households and governments will be paying down excess debt for years to come.

A raft of business surveys in Europe and America, leading up to the monthly U.S. employment report on Friday, is likely to provide grist for both mills.

Julian Callow, chief European economist for Barclays Capital in London, said central banks were addressing a significant number of tail risks, but other threats lingered.

"It's not a climate in which we can feel especially gung-ho about the economic recovery," he said.

According to 80 economists polled by Reuters, non-farm jobs probably rose by 115,000 in September, barely more than the tepid 96,000 figure in August that prompted the Fed to launch a third round of asset purchases to bring down bond yields.

But a strike by Chicago teachers will have depressed the headline number. Stripping it out, the private sector is forecast to have added 130,000 workers, up from 103,000 in August. Not great, but heading in the right direction.

A pair of surveys by the U.S. Institute of Supply Management is likely to paint a similarly blurred picture. Economists expect a small pick-up in manufacturing to be offset by a dip in services.

The reports will be scrutinised especially closely this month for signs that businesses are growing nervous about a huge package of spending cuts and tax increases that will take effect automatically in January unless politicians agree how to cut the budget deficit by $1.2 trillion over 10 years.

"Uncertainty about U.S. fiscal policy is the single biggest near-term threat to the global recovery," Fitch Ratings said.

Bank of America Merrill Lynch added that the 'fiscal cliff' was the No. 1 concern of its investors. Some economists think a lack of clarity over the outcome is already being reflected in weak orders for durable goods. The tightening would be equal to 4 percent of annual output.

Yet J.P. Morgan said 52 percent of the corporate clients it surveyed globally replied that the issue was making no difference to their investment plans; none reported a 'significant impact'.

CENTRAL BANKS TO SIT ON THEIR HANDS

Europe is no more clear-cut.

Final September surveys of purchasing managers are likely to confirm the euro zone is mired in recession.

But Berenberg Bank said that, thanks to the ECB, the 17-nation bloc was close to an inflection point; rebounding growth in narrow money pointed to renewed growth by spring at the latest.

Similarly, Deutsche Bank expects the euro zone economy to bottom out before the end of 2012 as the credit crunch eases. By this time next year, output could be expanding at a 1 percent pace.

"But with a poor economic outlook and still considerable political uncertainty, we see a high risk of a return to serious tensions in EMU (economic and monetary union) in the coming months," the bank's economists said in a report.

After a dramatic pledge last month to buy the bonds of struggling euro zone members that agree to tough reforms, the ECB is expected to hold steady when its policy council meets on Thursday, according to economists polled by Reuters.

They also expect no change this week from the Bank of England, although both central banks are likely to ease further by year's end.

In Australia, too, money markets are pricing in a rate cut, but economists think the central bank, which meets on Tuesday, will wait a while to pull the trigger.

The same goes for the Bank of Japan. Fresh from unexpectedly topping up its asset-buying and loan programme on Sept. 19, the BOJ is likely to hold off for now on further easing at a policy meeting that ends on Friday.

Ultimately, optimists say, determined central banks will prevail. Flooding their economies with cheap money will revive risk-taking and investment, generating demand and jobs.

But if, as British economist Andrew Smithers contends, monetary policy is "useless" under current conditions, the outlook is bleak.

For then only fiscal policy can engineer a recovery, yet the United States, Japan and Britain are no longer able to add to their deficits, while Germany and China do not want to, he said.

"The world may muddle through, but the chances of a serious and prolonged recession are exceptionally high," Smithers, head of an eponymous London consultancy, concluded in a report.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Argentina president's image slides further as CPI, crime weigh

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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Argentina president's image slides further as CPI, crime weigh
Sep 30th 2012, 17:29

Sun Sep 30, 2012 1:29pm EDT

* Fernandez' popularity at 24.3 pct in Sept -consulting firm

* High inflation, worries over crime hit leader

* Growth slowing on CPI, Brazil, drought, global woes

BUENOS AIRES, Sept 30 (Reuters) - Argentina President Cristina Fernandez's popularity continued its downward slide in September, sinking to 24.3 percent from 30 percent in August, according to a poll published on Sunday, as high inflation and worries over crime weighed.

As recently as September 2011, a month before winning her second term, Fernandez had a 64.1 percent popularity rating while campaigning on promises of deepening the interventionist policy model of her late husband and predecessor as president, Nestor Kirchner.

The 24.3 percent popularity rate for September is the lowest of Fernandez's second term. It had been at 38.1 percent in July.

But the economy has been seen slowing sharply due to high inflation, a sluggish world economy, waning demand from top trade partner Brazil, a drought-hit 2011/12 grain crop and new trade and currency controls that have dented confidence.

Argentina clocked zero growth in the second quarter of 2012, its weakest year-on-year performance since the third quarter of 2009, when the world was gripped by financial crisis.

The survey of 2,259 Argentines by polling company Management & Fit found that 60.6 percent of interviewees disapproved of the Peronist leader's management.

Of those surveyed, 72.2 percent said they approved of this month's "cacerolazo" - a popular form of protest in Latin America that involves banging pots and pans - to decry Argentina's economy and crime.

The INDEC statistics agency earlier this month said 12-month inflation through August climbed into double digits at 10 percent from 9.9 percent a month earlier. That was far below the 20 percent to 25 percent rate estimated by independent economists and consumer groups.

The poll has a margin of error of plus or minus 2.2 percentage points.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FX traders seek coaching in battle for dominance

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FX traders seek coaching in battle for dominance
Sep 30th 2012, 08:03

Sun Sep 30, 2012 4:03am EDT

* Coaching for traders thriving despite cutbacks

* Electronic trading has increased stress levels

* Self-confidence seen as key to trading success

By Nia Williams

LONDON, Sept 30 (Reuters) - In the take-no-prisoners world of foreign exchange dealing, asking traders to look inside themselves and confront their inner demons may seem a forlorn endeavour.

Yet some banks are turning to performance coaches to give their traders an edge in the battle to make money in the $4.5 trillion dollar a day FX market.

This soft skills approach contrasts with the popular stereotype of FX traders hurling prices -- and abuse -- at each other across the dealing room floor.

But while some dismiss techniques to develop a "clear-headed space" in which to trade as touchy-feely gimmickry, many are keen to embrace any tactic to outwit other market participants, whether human or machine.

"I talk about performance enhancement rather than psychology. It makes it a bit more approachable for guys who have still got a bit too much testosterone and ego," said trader performance coach Steve Ward.

With trading margins squeezed and bank cutting jobs, former physical education teacher and sports performance coach Ward had expected business to dry up.

In fact, the last year has been one of his busiest ever.

Trained in techniques including stress management and performance psychology, Ward also employs strategies underpinned by cutting-edge neuroscience research. Some exercises are focused on meditation to help develop attention and awareness.

Many financial market traders might baulk at such ideas and Ward acknowledged that in the male-dominated environment of some dealing rooms stigma may be attached to talking to a coach.

Steve Goldstein, who worked as a FX rates and fixed income trader for 25 years at institutions including Credit Suisse and Commerzbank before becoming a coach, agreed.

"People still use the term shrink. There are a lot of games in trading rooms that people play amongst themselves and look for signs of weakness," he said.

Both Goldstein and Ward said many of their clients were successful traders with 10 to 15 years experience who had lost their way and needed to regain self-confidence.

WHAT MAKES A GREAT TRADER?

Most traders and coaches agreed the most important attribute for making money in financial markets is self-confidence. Along with discipline and a clear process, it can help traders run profitable bets and cut quickly out of losses.

Without it traders may start second-guessing decisions, doubting their instincts and over-reaching for trades, said Graham Davidson, director of FX trading at National Australia Bank. He had a period of coaching around six months ago after slipping into bad habits that led to a 12- to 18-month "rough patch".

"We talked about all kinds of stuff. It was mostly trading-centric but equally you have to be able to look inside yourself and figure out what motivates you," Davidson said.

"If you understand your subconscious and what the drivers of your behaviour are you can become a better trader."

A trader's motivation could be to provide for his family, achieve status or protect his position within the hierarchy of a dealing desk. It may just be the satisfaction of being right.

Goldstein uses a questionnaire with new clients, including questions such as 'If you could stand back and watch yourself trading - what advice do you think you would give yourself?'

He described the questionnaire, filled in during a 2-1/2 hour introductory session, as a debrief on all aspects of trading -- the psychology behind it, a trader's personal demons, strengths and weaknesses, and their edge.

Heads of trading at four investment banks told Reuters they were either using coaches themselves or had heard of increasing demand. Steve Ward said he estimated the number of dedicated trading coaches had doubled since 2006.

"These guys are in demand," said Hugh Killen, global head of FX at Westpac in Sydney.

Even banks unwilling to use an external coach increasingly recognise the benefit of supporting new recruits.

"It's very 1980s to drop them in the deep end and tell them to start quoting customers on day one. I have always taken an active role in training grads from the moment they set foot on the desk," said Mark Johnson, global head of FX cash trading at HSBC.

"Psychology is a huge factor in trading. If you address traders' individual needs then those traders will have a higher performance, but I doubt that any external coach could quickly recognise these frailties without an awful lot of background from us."

TOUGH TIMES, NEW TACTICS

A new pressure on traders -- and a reason some cite for the increased use of coaches -- comes from the growth of hyper-fast electronic trading.

In its latest survey, the Bank for International Settlements said spot algorithmic trading -- in which a computer determines how orders are placed -- rose to 45 percent of trade on the EBS platform in 2010 from 2 percent in 2004.

More electronic trading means fewer traders, while high-frequency algorithms can identify money-making opportunities and execute trades faster than a human can spot the prices.

"A lot of traders are struggling to compete against the boxes," said John Coates, a Cambridge University neuroscientist and former trader with Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

But, in the battle between man and machines, there are signs high-frequency trading is facing a backlash as banks and regulators focus on the human touch.

"Our ability to generate gut feelings makes our body the most sophisticated black box on the market. I have heard of pretty big players pulling the plug on their boxes and putting money back into humans," Coates said.

But it may be some time before traders' psychological well-being is put on a par with their technical know-how.

Many traders remain hostile to the idea of discussing their personal demons with a coach. A trader who admits needing help and wants to talk about his mental state risks mockery.

This could be more true in London than New York, given the UK's traditional antipathy towards the idea of therapy.

As one London-based FX trader said when asked if he had ever used a trading coach: "Nah, are you kidding? It just sounds all namby pamby and American."

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Saturday, September 29, 2012

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Qatar says worried about value of dollar, euro -CNBC

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
Qatar says worried about value of dollar, euro -CNBC
Sep 29th 2012, 17:03

RIYADH, Sept 29 | Sat Sep 29, 2012 1:03pm EDT

RIYADH, Sept 29 (Reuters) - Wealthy Qatar, a major investor in U.S. and European assets, worries that haphazard attempts by countries to shore up their economies could weaken the dollar and the euro, its prime minister said.

"What should happen is we should have a full package with a full strategy to solve the problems," Sheikh Hamad bin Jassim al-Thani, who also heads the country's sovereign wealth fund, Qatar Investment Authority (QIA), told U.S. financial broadcaster CNBC in an interview aired on Friday.

This month the U.S. Federal Reserve announced a programme of heavy purchases of mortgage-backed securities in an effort to boost employment, but the U.S. government has so far failed to reassure financial markets that it has an effective plan to cut its budget deficit and boost economic growth.

The European Central Bank has also said it will buy bonds to protect economies from the euro zone debt crisis, but governments of weak countries such as Greece and Spain have not persuaded investors their debts can be cut to safe levels.

Sheikh Hamad said the central banks were right to act to prevent worse crises, but added: "With more printing money, without having a strategy, I believe the value of the money will go down very soon."

He did not give details of the economic measures which he believed Western countries should be taking, but said the risk of further volatility in markets was making investors such as Qatar cautious. Analysts have estimated the size of Qatar's sovereign wealth fund at around $100 billion.

"There are some questions with no answer up to now," he told CNBC.

However, Sheikh Hamad added that Qatar would retain holdings of strategic stocks and buy when prices dropped, and that it would continue to make new investments in promising assets.

He said he was optimistic about the longer-term future of the banking industry, since better regulation and capital-raising would strengthen banks after some years. He noted that QIA had a strategic stake in Credit Suisse , and owned about 1 percent of Bank of America and 5 percent of Santander Brasil among other banks.

The gas-rich Gulf state has bought more than $5 billion or $6 billion of real estate assets over the last four to five months, mostly in the United States and Europe, Sheikh Hamad said. "If there is some good opportunity, why not," he said of investing in crisis-hit Europe.

XSTRATA BID

Qatar, which owns just over 12 percent of Xstrata, will help to determine the success or failure of Glencore's $32 billion offer for the miner.

Glencore was forced earlier this month to raise its bid price, offering 3.05 new shares for every Xstrata share instead of 2.8, after Qatari pressure. As a condition, however, Glencore imposed its own chief executive and largest single shareholder, Ivan Glasenberg, at the head of the combined group.

Xstrata's directors face a Monday deadline to decide their position on Glencore's higher offer.

Sheikh Hamad told CNBC: "We have no problem with the new price," but added, "Other aspects (of the proposed deal) have to be studied." He declined to elaborate.

AUX

Earlier this week Reuters quoted banking sources as saying Qatar Holding, one of the country's investment vehicles, was in advanced talks to buy a 49-percent stake in Brazilian billionaire Eike Batista's gold firm AUX for about $2 billion.

Qatar Holding subsequently issued a statement denying that such talks had taken place.

However, asked about Qatar's intentions towards AUX, Sheikh Hamad told CNBC: "We're studying it. Still there is no commitment from our side." Details of the proposal need to be presented to the board, he added without elaborating.

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Friday, September 28, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: EMERGING MARKETS-Chile peso slumps on intervention concerns

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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EMERGING MARKETS-Chile peso slumps on intervention concerns
Sep 28th 2012, 22:53

Fri Sep 28, 2012 6:53pm EDT

  * Chile cenbank president doesn't rule out intervention      * Colombia says will keep up dollar purchases      * Mexican peso falls 0.31 pct; Brazil real up 0.28 pct          By Moises Avila and Jean Arce      SANTIAGO/MEXICO CITY, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Chile's peso  slumped by the most in seven weeks on Friday after the central  bank warned it could act to curb currency gains, while Colombia  pledged to keep buying dollars in its market to fight peso  strength.      The Chilean peso lost nearly 0.8 percent to change  hands at 474.60 per U.S. dollar after central bank chief Rodrigo  Vergara said policymakers may intervene during "exceptional  periods" in which the exchange rate is significantly out of line  with fundamentals.       The move by Chile pushed it closer to the stance of  policymakers in Brazil, Colombia and Peru who have been  intervening in markets to fight dollar inflows that have lifted  their currencies and hurt exporters.         "The central bank's comments weakened the peso because they  leave the door open for a possible intervention. The market  isn't just speculating about the possibility of dollar  purchases, but also bank deposit requirements," said Rodrigo  Sarria, a trader at Celfin Capital in Santiago.       The peso has gained more than 9 percent so far this year,  making it the second strongest performer among the 152  currencies tracked by Reuters.      Stimulus measures announced by the U.S. Federal Reserve and  the European Central Bank boosted Latin American currencies this  quarter. The measures are expected to drive down yields on U.S.  and European fixed-income instruments, making emerging market  assets more attractive.       The Chilean peso gained 5.5 percent against the dollar in  the third quarter, while Mexico's peso firmed 4.5 percent.  Brazil's real shed 0.8 percent against the greenback in the  quarter after Brazil's central bank intervened.       Colombia's central bank held its benchmark interest rate  steady on Friday, and it pledged to extend daily dollar  purchases to keep a lid on the peso.       The central bank said it would buy at least $3 billion in  the foreign exchange market via auctions from Oct. 1 through  March 29, 2013, to take pressure off the peso currency.       The Colombia peso slipped 0.1 percent on Friday,  bringing its decline for the quarter to 0.9 percent, hurt by  central bank dollar purchases.      The Mexican peso lost a modest 0.31 percent to trade  at 12.8660 per dollar as concerns about Spain made investors  cautious about taking risks in emerging markets.      A stress test on Spanish banks showed the institutions need  a total of 59.3 billion euros in extra capital, but uncertainty  persisted about whether Spain will ask for a bailout that would  let the European Central Bank begin buying its bonds.      "We could see a whole to wave of pressure related to Spain,"  said Jorge Gordillo, an analyst at CI Banco in Mexico City,  saying that concerns about Spain could weigh on the peso in the  coming week. "We think that it will be in October when Spain  will ask (for a bailout), and if this happens the peso and stock  markets are going to take it well."      Barclays analysts said the Mexican peso could outperform its  emerging market peers in Latin America and Asia because its  central bank is unlikely to intervene.      Banco de Mexico research published on Friday said emerging  market attempts to stem capital inflows during the last round of  Fed easing had a limited effect in the longer term.      Steps pursued by countries such as Brazil, Chile and  Colombia, including new taxes on investment, higher bank reserve  requirements and tariff reforms, may even make investors see  them as a riskier bet, the research paper said.       The Brazilian real  decoupled from the rest of  the market, rising 0.28 percent to 2.0255 per dollar, as  investors tried to influence the currency's closing rate at the  end of the month.      Brazilian policymakers have pledged to move aggressively to  offset expected capital inflows from the easy monetary  conditions in the developed world.       A senior government official recently told Reuters that  Brazil will defend the level of 2 reais per dollar "like a  wall."              Latin American FX prices at 2100 GMT:         Currencies                            daily %  year-to-                                          change     ate %                                Latest              change   Brazil real                  2.0255      0.28     -7.75                                                     Mexico peso                 12.8660     -0.31      8.58                                                     Argentina peso*              6.2800      0.32    -24.68                                                     Chile peso                 474.6000     -0.76      9.42                                                     Colombia peso            1,800.3000     -0.10      7.67                                                     Peru sol                     2.5980     -0.08      3.81                                                     * Argentine peso's rate between                           brokerages  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ softens on Spain, quarter-end positioning

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ softens on Spain, quarter-end positioning
Sep 28th 2012, 21:02

Fri Sep 28, 2012 5:02pm EDT

  * C$ at C$0.9832 vs US$, or $1.0171      * C$ up 3.55 percent in third quarter      * Bonds rise across the curve        By Solarina Ho      TORONTO, Sept 28 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar retreated  against the U.S. dollar on Friday after a bevy of North American  data and as attention turned from Spain's new budget to the next  tests for the euro zone.      The currency tracked global equity markets, which declined  after initial optimism about Madrid's debt-cutting plans gave  way to anxiety over its troubled banks and faltering global  economic growth.       Spain plans to ask for around 40 billion euros ($51.46  billion) in European aid to recapitalize its weak banks, Bank of  Spain deputy Governor Fernando Restoy said on Friday. An  independent report said Spanish banks will need 59.3 billion  euros ($76.3 billion) in extra capital to ride out a serious  economic downturn.       Investors rebalancing their portfolios and unwinding their  positions also contributed to the weaker performance.      "The Canadian dollar has struggled this afternoon ... It's  the end of the quarter and the end of the month and there seems  to be a tremendous demand for U.S. dollar across the board,"  said Adam Button, currency analyst at ForexLive in Montreal.      "If we look back throughout this quarter, the Canadian  dollar is right at the top of the leaderboard with the New  Zealand dollar as the best performer. Oftentimes, you'll see  speculative money unwind those trades at the end of the quarter  to get into cash."      The currency finished the week at C$0.9832 versus the U.S.  dollar, or $1.0171, weaker than Thursday's North American finish  at C$0.9809, or $1.0195.       Canada's dollar has climbed 3.55 percent during the third  quarter, bolstered by central bank stimulus measures in the  United States and abroad, and the Bank of Canada's own hawkish  stance.      "Canada is in an enviable economic position where we have  solid growth even when it's not spectacular ... In an  environment where there's so much uncertainty, that's one of the  best qualities you'll find in a currency," said Button, who  expects the currency to strengthen further in October.            NORTH AMERICAN DATA      Canadian government data showed that the country's economy  grew by an inflation-adjusted 0.2 percent in July on strength in  manufacturing, utilities and wholesale and retail trade.         The results exceeded analysts' expectations but June growth  figures were revised down, leaving actual gross domestic product  in July almost exactly as forecast.      "The economy is continuing to expand, but the pace at around  2 percent is very modest and not going to provide much downward  pressure on the unemployment rate," said Paul Ferley, assistant  chief economist at Royal Bank of Canada.      "With the revision, the overall pace is still fairly  moderate (and) argues for the Bank of Canada to continue to keep  monetary conditions highly stimulative."      South of the border, U.S. consumer spending rose in August  by the most in six months as households stretched to pay for  higher gasoline prices, according to a government report on  Friday. Other data showed factory activity in the Midwest  contracted this month for the first time in three years.         The two-year Canadian government bond rose 6.5  Canadian cents to yield 1.069 percent, while the benchmark  10-year bond was up 25 Canadian cents, yielding  1.728 percent.  
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