Friday, September 28, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro down for 2nd straight week as Spain caution persists

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro down for 2nd straight week as Spain caution persists
Sep 28th 2012, 18:41

Fri Sep 28, 2012 2:41pm EDT

  * Euro seen weighed by possible Moody's review on Spain debt      * Uncertainty over Spain aid request remains      * Spain stress test shows banks need extra 59.3 bln euros      * Euro faces chart resistance at $1.2960        By Gertrude Chavez-Dreyfuss      NEW YORK, Sept 28 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the  dollar on Friday, declining for a second straight week, as  uncertainty persisted about Spain's bailout prospects despite a  generally positive audit report on the country's struggling  banks.      An independent audit from consultant Oliver Wyman released  on Friday showed that Spain's troubled banking industry would  need 59.3 billion euros more capital to cope with a serious  economic downturn. Spain, however, said it would only ask for 40  billion euros in European aid for its banks.       European governments have allotted a 100 billion-euro credit  line for Spain's banking sector.      The audit report was viewed as positive for Spain and the  euro because the final figure the country's banking capital  needs was largely in line with market expectations, removing  another layer of uncertainty.        The euro did trim its losses versus the dollar following the  news on the Spanish banking capital requirements but the general  stance on the euro zone common currency remained cautious.      "There's still a lot of questions about Spain, mainly  related to whether or not it would seek a bailout," said Brian  Kim, currency strategist at RBS Securities in Stamford,  Connecticut.      "Overall there are a lot of implementation risks in terms of  all the measures committed by European policymakers to deal with  the euro zone crisis."      In early afternoon trading, the euro was last down  0.4 percent at $1.2859, not far from Thursday's two-week low of  $1.2828. The euro faces resistance at $1.2960, the 38.2 percent  retracement of its Sept. 17-27 slide, while the 200-day moving  average around $1.2825 is expected to serve as support.        The single currency was down 0.9 percent this week against  the dollar, after losses of more than 1.0 percent the previous  week. It was the largest two-week loss for the euro since  mid-July.      The euro, however, at current prices fared better against  the greenback in September, appreciating 1.7 percent, its best  performance since the first quarter this year.      The common currency's positive performance was largely a  reflection of diminished debt crisis fears resulting from  assurances made during the summer by European Central Bank  President Mario Draghi that the ECB will do whatever it takes to  preserve the euro.       Also helping the euro this quarter was the ECB's  announcement this month that it would buy bonds from heavily  indebted countries.      Analysts, however, said the euro's gains may be limited.  Longer term, concerns Spain would be unable to implement its  budget plans and bring down its deficit could weigh on the  common currency.      Madrid on Thursday announced a detailed plan for economic  reforms and a budget based mainly on spending cuts rather than  tax measures, in what many analysts saw as an effort to pre-empt  the conditions for a bailout.       The Spanish budget goes to parliament on Saturday and  debates could last weeks. Spain's 17 autonomous regions still  must present budgets and find an additional five billion euros  in adjustments to meet overall public deficit reduction goals.       Craig Erlam, market analyst at Alpari Ltd in London,  believes a bailout request from Spain seemed inevitable.      That request from Spain is a precondition for the ECB to  start buying its debt to bring down its borrowing costs.  Analysts and traders said this would lift the euro, but Spain  has appeared reluctant to take that step.            MORE HURDLES      Moody's rating agency is due to review Spain's sovereign  rating by the end of this month and may downgrade it to junk  status. On Thursday, ratings agency Egan-Jones cut Spain's  sovereign rating further into junk status.       In addition, much of the euro zone is mired in a recession,  which should keep ECB monetary policy accommodative for quite  some time. A rate cut may be in the pipeline as well, perhaps as  soon as its monthly policy meeting next Thursday, analysts said.      In other currencies, the yen was broadly weaker. It fell  against the dollar on Friday, after rising for seven straight  sessions. The dollar last traded at 78.08 yen, up 0.6  percent on the day, its largest one-day gain in two weeks.      The euro also rose 0.1 percent versus the yen to 100.35 yen  .  
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