Wednesday, December 5, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ buoyed by China hopes, hawkish Bank of Canada

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ buoyed by China hopes, hawkish Bank of Canada
Dec 5th 2012, 22:02

Wed Dec 5, 2012 5:02pm EST

  * C$ firms to C$0.9917 vs US$, or $1.0084      * Bank of Canada, global growth hopes lift sentiment      * Bond prices higher across the curve        By Solarina Ho      TORONTO, Dec 5 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar touched a more  than one-week high against its U.S. counterpart on Wednesday as  investor sentiment remained upbeat a day after the Bank of  Canada's statement on interest rates and signs that China's  economic recovery was on track.      Canada's central bank held its overnight lending rate steady  on Tuesday at 1 percent, as expected, but the bank's unwavering  opinion that it may need to eventually hike interest rates, not  cut them, boosted confidence in the currency, and it  outperformed most other majors, including the euro.         "We're still seeing a bounce related to the hawkish tone in  the Bank of Canada statement yesterday. That's helping to  support Canadian dollar sentiment," said Karl Schamotta, a  Calgary-based senior market strategist with Western Union  Business Solutions.      The prospect of higher interest rates tends to support  currencies by attracting international capital flows.      Meanwhile, new Chinese Communist Party chief Xi Jinping said  the world's second-largest economy will maintain its fine-tuning  of economic policies in 2013 to ensure stable economic growth,  sparking a broad rally in equities, commodities and  growth-related currencies.        The Canadian dollar finished the session at  C$0.9917 versus the greenback, or $1.0084, firmer than Tuesday's  North American close at C$0.9932, or $1.0068. Earlier, the  currency touched C$0.9908, or $1.0093, its strongest level since  Nov. 27.      The currency also outperformed the commodity-linked  Australian dollar. Earlier this week the Reserve Bank of  Australia cut interest rates to a record-matching low of 3  percent after the country's resource-reliant economy was hit by  lower export revenues, government cutbacks and a decelerating  mining boom.      "The Bank of Canada certainly looks like the last man  standing," said Schamotta.      The currency remained within its recent narrow range around  C$0.9962 and C$0.9906, however, and failed to sustain its move  through the 100-day moving average of C$0.9913. A close stronger  than that could have fueled a near-term Canadian dollar rally to  the C$0.9875 area, said Jeremy Stretch, head of FX strategy at  CIBC World Markets in London.      "Looking ahead to the employment numbers on Friday  may  well be one caveat which will prevent too aggressive a CAD rally  at least until then," he said, adding that he was expecting a  slightly disappointing number below consensus.      Both Canada and the United States will release November  employment figures on Friday. Economists expect the United  States to have added 93,000 jobs and Canada to have added 10,000  jobs.       "The jobs report will be a huge influence ... I think the  key thing there is we're looking to see if recent stability in  jobs will continue in the U.S., and we certainly saw signs of  nascent improvement in numbers over the last couple of months,"  said Schamotta.      "I do expect overall sentiment to begin slipping here and to  continue slipping really, which would pull it back closer to the  par mark over the next few days," he said, but added that he did  not expect the currency to substantially break out of its  current trading range until the new year.      Economists and currency strategists polled by Reuters expect  the Canadian dollar to strengthen against its U.S. counterpart  over the next year, with a recovering global economy and a  possible Bank of Canada interest rate increase providing  support.       Over six months, the survey saw the currency strengthening  to C$0.9800, or $1.0204, and holding at that level a year from  now.       However, investors are still on edge as talks between the  White House and Congress to avoid year-end tax hikes and  spending cuts showed little progress.       Canadian bond prices were higher across the curve. The  two-year bond climbed 2.5 Canadian cents to yield  1.046 percent, and the benchmark 10-year bond gained  6 Canadian cents to yield 1.688 percent.  
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