Thursday, December 27, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares, euro climb as "fiscal cliff" push awaited

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Shares, euro climb as "fiscal cliff" push awaited
Dec 27th 2012, 11:03

Thu Dec 27, 2012 6:03am EST

  * U.S. set for last-minute scramble to avert "fiscal cliff"      * European shares edge higher after return from holidays      * Yen hits 21-month low as monetary easing eyed        By Marc Jones      LONDON, Dec 27 (Reuters) - World shares and the euro edged  higher on Thursday as U.S. lawmakers prepared to resume  negotiations to avoid a fiscal crunch, while the yen hit a  two-year low on the prospect of drastic monetary easing.      President Barack Obama will try to revive budget crisis  talks which stalled last week when he returns to Washington on  Thursday after cutting short his Christmas holiday in Hawaii.      In a sign that there may be a way to break the deadlock in  the discussions, Republican House of Representatives Speaker  John Boehner urged the Democrat-controlled Senate to act to pull  back from the so-called "fiscal cliff" and offered to at least  consider any plan the upper chamber produced.       Returning from the Christmas holiday break, the pan-European  FTSEurofirst 300 climbed 0.1 percent as London's FTSE  100, Paris's CAC-40 and Frankfurt's DAX   added between 0.1 percent and 0.6 percent.      Earlier small gains in Asia meant the MSCI index of world  shares was up 0.25 percent by 1045 GMT and a 0.1 percent gain in  U.S. stock futures suggested Wall Street was also likely  to start higher.            "There is still hope for a last-minute deal, otherwise we're  in for a correction in January. People have already priced in an  agreement. Without it, the market can't stay at these levels," a  Paris-based trader said.       Economists warn that the "fiscal cliff" of higher taxes and   spending cuts worth $600 billion could push the world's largest  economy into recession, dragging other countries with it.      Such concerns underpinned the dollar as the fiscal impasse  continues to sap investor appetite for risky assets, raising the  dollar's safe-haven appeal.      Against the Japanese currency, the dollar at 85.87 yen   reached its highest since September 2010, with investors  accelerating their yen sales after Prime Minister Shinzo Abe  said his newly-formed government would pursue a bold monetary  policy, a flexible fiscal policy and a growth strategy to  encourage private investment.       The yen has now fallen roughly 10.5 percent versus the  dollar in 2012, its biggest annual drop since 2005. At the same  time Japan's benchmark Nikkei share index is at a 21-month high  and is now up 22 percent for the year.       "The present yen weakness is related to the new government,  which seems devoted to push through both fiscal and monetary  policy changes and take direct measures to weaken the yen," said  Richard Falkenhall, currency strategist at SEB in Stockholm.      "Yen weakness could very well continue. We see the yen as  extremely over-valued considering the weak fundamentals we see  in Japan," he added.                EURO REBOUND       The euro, which is being supported by a recent improvement  in the outlook towards the euro zone, climbed 0.4 percent to  $1.3266.      French consumer confidence data helped consolidate the rise  as it rose unexpectedly in December to the highest level since  August despite increased concerns about rising unemployment.      Things appeared less certain in Italy though. Morale among  manufacturers rose slightly for the second month in a row but  broader business morale fell to its lowest level on record.        The data underscores the difficult task facing whomever wins  a national election in February to revive an economy in a deep  recession which shows little sign of easing.                NO PANIC      In commodity markets, London copper rose 1.7 percent  to a one-week high of $7,932 a tonne after some positive data  from China, the world's top copper buyer whose economy is now a  key driver of global growth.      Profits earned by China's industrial companies jumped 22.8  percent in November from a year ago, accelerating from October's  20.5 percent, Beijing reported. "People are  hopeful that China's economy will recover next year," said Zhang  Ao, an analyst at Minmetals Futures.          The U.S. wrangling hung over oil, however. Brent crude   slipped back below $111 a barrel although the Chinese  data, fresh unrest in the Middle East and hopes that the new  Japanese government's policies would spur demand, helped limit  the drop.       With bond investors also focusing on Washington, German  government bond futures were little changed at 144.72.         Analysts believe that even if a U.S. compromise is not  reached before year end - as initially expected - budget  measures could be agreed in January and enforced retroactively.      "Safe-haven assets (such as Bunds) should remain supported  as long as the fiscal cliff debate remains unsolved. But there  is no sense of panic. The market has come to some sort of  understanding that the end of December is not an extremely hard  deadline," said Commerzbank rate strategist Rainer Guntermann.  
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