Saturday, June 30, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 2-China to relax conditions for SMEs to list in Hong Kong

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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UPDATE 2-China to relax conditions for SMEs to list in Hong Kong
Jun 30th 2012, 08:27

Sat Jun 30, 2012 4:27am EDT

* China to encourage HK financial firms to form JVs on mainland

* Regulator says will increase quotas on RQFIIs

* News caps week of announcements on ties between China and HK

By Kevin Yao

HONG KONG, June 30 (Reuters) - China will relax conditions for mainland firms, especially small and medium-sized enterprises, to list in Hong Kong, the country's securities regulator said on Saturday, in a move that could encourage privately owned Chinese companies to tap funds in the city.

The regulator also said it would encourage qualified Hong Kong financial institutions to form joint ventures with mainland partners in stock and futures brokerages, fund management firms and stock investment consulting firms, capping a week of news on co-operation between the mainland and Hong Kong.

"Currently, the conditions on domestic firms to issue H-shares in terms of companies' size is still high and many medium- and small-sized companies cannot meet such requirements," China's Securities and Regulatory Commission (CSRC) said in Hong Kong.

"To support more domestic firms to list shares in Hong Kong, the CSRC will revise the relevant rules to relax the conditions on finance and size of companies under the premise of strengthening corporate governance and information disclosure."

The Hong Kong exchange has the final say in listing of any company in the city's bourse.

The Hong Kong stock exchange listing committee, which consists of lawyers, investment bankers and exchange officials among others, scrutinises listing applications before giving or denying approval. Among the conditions is a track record of profitability.

Several small and mid-sized Chinese companies have been starved of capital to pay for expansion as a result of a tight funding environment in the world's second-largest economy.

Hong Kong's rise to the top of the world's IPO market, as ranked by value, was supported by a rush of listings by Chinese state-owned enterprises starting in the early 2000s.

FUNDS BOOST

The China securities regulator also said China would increase quotas on the Renminbi Qualified Foreign Institutional Investor (RQFII) scheme, which allows foreign investors to buy into Chinese mutual funds using offshore yuan.

"We will draw experiences from the pilot scheme and further increase the quota on RQFII and expand the scope of institutions involved in the pilot scheme, enrich products and relax restrictions on investment ratios," the regulator said.

In April, China raised the RQFII quota to 70 billion yuan ($10.99 billion) from 20 billion yuan.

It also allowed more of RQFII fund allotments to be invested in mainland equity markets instead of low-risk, low-yield fixed income instruments.

So far RQFII investors can only invest up to 20 percent of their offshore yuan in China's stock market with the rest in bonds.

Speaking at the same event in Hong Kong, Hu Xiaolian, vice governor of the People's Bank of China, said authorities had no immediate plan to raise the ceiling on yuan purchases by Hong Kong residents, currently at 20,000 yuan per day, but added the central bank may consider relaxing the limit in the longer term as real demand for the yuan rises.

The news came on the eve of the 15th anniversary of Hong Kong's return to China from British control, and after a raft of announcements on co-operation between the mainland and Hong Kong, aimed in part to strengthen Hong Kong's role as an offshore yuan centre.

President Hu Jintao is in Hong Kong this weekend to oversee the swearing in of a new chief executive on Sunday.

China said on Friday it will experiment with service sector reforms in a new business zone offering freer currency movements and Hong Kong professional standards, building the sort of test bed that turned the country into a manufacturing powerhouse.

The PBOC's Hu said the Qianhai financial zone in Shenzhen, just across the border from Hong Kong, will test the convertibility of the yuan in certain areas of the capital account.

The yuan is convertible on the current account, which covers trade in goods and services, but is only partially convertible on the capital account, which deals with capital movements.

"The experiment of yuan convertibility under the capital account in Qianhai will mainly be focused on the areas where the convertibility level is low, for example lending," Hu said.

Chinese officials have not given a fixed timetable for making the yuan freely tradeable, although the central bank has outlined the task of making it basically convertible by 2015.

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Friday, June 29, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies soar on EU deal, cenbank boosts real

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies soar on EU deal, cenbank boosts real
Jun 29th 2012, 22:48

Fri Jun 29, 2012 6:48pm EDT

  * Eurozone measures reduce Spain, Italy borrowing costs      * Brazil eases restrictions on funding for export prepayment      * Brazil real jumps 3.3 pct, Mexico peso up 1.9 pct        By Walter Brandimarte      RIO DE JANEIRO, June 29 (Reuters) - Latin American  currencies rallied on Friday as investors welcomed an euro zone  agreement to recapitalize its banks, while a move by the  Brazilian government to facilitate dollar inflows further  boosted the real.      The Brazilian currency  soared 3.3 percent to  close at 2.009 per dollar, after the central bank eased rules on  export prepayment and sold 60,000 currency swaps in an auction.  While the first measure allows more dollars to flow into the  country, the swap auction boosts the supply of greenbacks in the  futures market.      With Friday's rally, the real erased almost all of its  losses for June. Still, it remains about 7 percent lower in the  year to date.      The export prepayment measure was announced late on Thursday  when the real weakened to near 2.1 per dollar, leading many  investors to believe the central bank was drawing a strong line  around that level.      "I believe the central bank is now comfortable with the real  at 2.0, or even at 2.05 per dollar," said Jose Carlos Amado, a  currency trader with Renascenca brokerage in Sao Paulo. He said  the central bank might halt the sale of currency swaps for now,  if the real remains at that level.      Other Latin American currencies also posted strong gains  after EU leaders agreed on Friday to let their rescue fund  inject aid directly into their banks, as well as to intervene on  bond markets to support troubled member states.       The Chilean peso closed at a bid price of 500.90,  rising 1.7 percent from Thursday, its largest one-day jump in  seven months.      The Mexican peso gained 1.9 percent to 13.355 per  dollar, its strongest level since the beginning of May.       It rallied some 7.7 percent in June, the largest monthly  jump since Reuters started recording that data late in 1997,  also boosted by expectations this weekend's presidential and  parliamentary elections could pave the way for economic reforms.      The measures in Europe were a positive surprise for  investors who had very low hopes about the ability of euro-zone  leaders to agree on a way out of the crisis.      "Expectations for the EU summit were very negative, markets  believed there would be no agreement," said Delia Paredes,  director of analysis and strategy at Banorte-IXE in Mexico City,  explaining why the peso rallied sharply after news of an  euro-zone agreement.      "Of course the devil is on the details on how they're going  to implement that," she added, noting that a series of economic  data in the United States could also sap the peso's strength  next week.                  Latin American FX prices from Reuters at 2230 GMT:   Currencies                            daily %  year-to-                                          change     ate %                                Latest              change   Brazil real                  2.0098      3.30     -7.02                                                     Mexico peso                 13.3550      1.90      4.60                                                     Argentina peso*              5.9300      0.84    -20.24                                                     Chile peso                 500.9000      1.68      3.67                                                     Colombia peso            1,783.7000      1.31      8.67                                                     Peru sol                     2.6640      0.08      1.24                                                     * Argentine peso's rate between                           brokerages  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, euro, oil rally after euro zone deal

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks, euro, oil rally after euro zone deal
Jun 29th 2012, 21:02

Fri Jun 29, 2012 5:02pm EDT

* Euro posts hefty 1-day gain but falls in quarter

* Wall Street records first quarter loss in three

* Oil suffers biggest quarterly drop since 2008

* Spanish, Italian yields fall from elevated levels

By Herbert Lash and Richard Leong

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - The euro jumped nearly 2 percent, oil prices surged and world stocks rallied o n F riday after euro zone leaders agreed on measures to cut soaring borrowing costs in Italy and Spain, in addition to directly recapitalizing regional banks.

The rebound was a mildly encouraging finish to a miserable second quarter for investors, when stocks gave back most of their first-quarter gains, the euro hit a near-two-year low and oil dropped below $100.

Spanish and Italian government bond yields fell sharply, while safe-haven U.S. and German government debt sold off after the region's leaders agreed that European Union bailout funds could be used to stabilize bond markets to support countries that comply with EU policy recommendations.

EU leaders also agreed after 14 hours of intense talks that creation of a single supervisory body for euro zone banks, housed under the European Central Bank, would be discussed by year-end - a first step toward a banking union in the region.

Markets rallied on the news, which caught investors by surprise, as expectations for meaningful steps to tackle the debilitating debt crisis had all but disappeared in the run-up to the two-day EU summit.

"We've gotten used to being underwhelmed by the outcomes, so with little to no expectations for success, the fact that it appears we are going to get something substantial is a real important positive for the market in the near term," said Art Hogan, managing director of Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

"It's inching closer to a banking union and the closer we get to a banking union would put (the EU) well on the road to a fiscal union."

The euro surged against the U.S. dollar, climbing as high as $1.2692. It was last up at $1.2657, up 1.8 percent from Thursday, which was its biggest one-day percentage rise since October 2011.

For the quarter, however, the 17-member common currency was down 5.1 percent after a 3.1 percent gain in the first quarter.

Wall Street stocks rose more than 2 percent, following a jump in Europe that also boosted indexes more than 2 percent, spurred by soaring bank shares.

The S&P healthcare index took part in the market rally, rebounding 1.9 percent after falling o n T hursday when the Supreme Court upheld the landmark law that requires most Americans to buy health insurance.

Among the day's losers was Research in Motion, which tumbled 19.1 percent to $7.39 after it delayed the launch of its next-generation of BlackBerry phones.

The Dow Jones industrial average closed up 277.83 points, or 2.20 percent, at 12,880.09. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index ended up 33.12 points, or 2.49 percent, at 1,362.16. The Nasdaq Composite Index finished up 85.56 points, or 3.00 percent, at 2,935.05.

The three major Wall Street averages suffered their first quarterly loss since the third quarter of last year. The Dow fell 2.5 percent; S&P 3.3 percent and the Nasdaq 5.1 percent.

In Europe, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index closed 2.6 percent higher, shaving its quarterly loss to 4.46 percent.

The European bank sector strengthened 4.1 percent despite another decline in Barclays shares after they tumbled on Th ursday on news the British bank paid record fines in a probe of manipulating interbank loan rates.

MSCI's all-country world equity index gained 2.7 percent. Its biggest one-day gain in seven months pared its second-quarter decline to 6.1 percent, which followed a 10.9 percent rise in the first quarter.

The MSCI emerging markets index climbed 3.5 percent, reducing its second-quarter fall to 9.8 percent.

The price of safe-haven German bonds headed lower - briefly pushing yields above their U.S. equivalents for the first time since early February - while prices for gold, oil and copper all rose.

Yields on 10-year German debt rose as high as 1.691 percent, before paring gains to 1.584 percent. Their U.S. counterpart, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note , was down 18/32 in price to yield 1.647 percent.

The 10-year Bund yield fell to a record low of 1.127 percent on June 1 and finished the second quarter 22 basis points lower.

The 10-year yield fell 56 basis points in the second quarter during which it set a historic low of 1.442 percent on June 1.

Yields on Italian 10-year debt fell to 5.839 percent from 6.192 percent late o n T hursday, while yields on the Spanish equivalent fell to 6.346 percent, down from Thursday's close of 6.915 percent.

The drop in Spanish and Italian borrowing costs, while welcomed, has not been big enough as the euro zone's third- and fourth-biggest economies are struggling.

"We really didn't see any actions by the authorities last night which are going to have a material impact on either of those," Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments in London.

SKEPTICISM PERSISTS

Despite the market euphoria, some remained skeptical.

"This is another Band-Aid," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "There was not anything material that came out of the discussion that would help resolve the crisis."

Still, the respite gave investors a breather ahead of the third quarter, which could be another volatile period for stocks, the euro and commodities.

Oil prices rallied on last trading day of the quarter, but still posted their deepest quarterly loss since 2008.

Brent crude for August settled up $6.44 or 7.05 percent at $97.80 a barrel. U.S. crude settled up $7.27 or 9.36 percent at $84.96 a barrel, up from an eight-month low hit on Thursday.

For the quarter, spot Brent and U.S. oil futures fell 20.4 percent and 17.5 percent for their steepest quarterly percentage drops since the fourth quarter of 2008, during the height of the global credit crunch.

Spot gold prices climbed 3.0 percent to $1,598.80 an ounce. They fell 4.2 percent in the second quarter, paring gold's year-to-date gain to 2.2 percent.

Copper rose 4.4 percent at $7,684.85 a tonne to hit a one-month high, but it was still down 8.7 percent for the quarter.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 2-Bundestag approves EU bailout fund, fiscal pact

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
UPDATE 2-Bundestag approves EU bailout fund, fiscal pact
Jun 29th 2012, 20:33

Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:33pm EDT

* Merkel wins 2/3 majority with opposition help

* Eurosceptics angered by concessions at EU summit

* Court will delay ratification, may seek referendum

By Gareth Jones and Stephen Brown

BERLIN, June 29 (Reuters) - Germany's lower house of parliament resoundingly approved the euro zone's permanent bailout scheme and new budget rules on Friday, but legal hurdles remain and Chancellor Angela Merkel's concessions to euro zone partners Italy and Spain may make those harder to overcome.

The outcome of the vote was never seriously in doubt after opposition parties agreed to back the budget rules, or "fiscal compact", in return for growth and job creation measures. Merkel needed their support to get a required two-thirds majority.

"Today Germany, with the approval of the fiscal pact and the ESM by all parties in both houses of parliament, will send an important signal ... that we are overcoming the European debt crisis in a sustainable way," Merkel told the lower house, the Bundestag, before the votes.

Merkel had returned for the debates and the vote from a European Union summit in Brussels which agreed to give the euro zone's bailout funds more flexibility to stabilise bond markets and to directly recapitalise banks in the future.

The upper house, the Bundesrat, was expected to give its seal of approval to both pieces of legislation later on Friday but the ESM cannot come into force until Germany's powerful Constitutional Court has given its go-ahead.

Ratification of the two tools for combating the debt crisis may also force Germany to test its commitment to Europe in a referendum as anger grows over aid to weaker states.

Merkel insisted the deal at the summit to use the rescue funds to ease Spanish and Italian borrowing costs without extra austerity measures, and to recapitalise banks directly, did not violate her mantra of no aid without conditionality.

But it could exacerbate impatience with the bailouts in Germany, which has no big Eurosceptic party but where Merkel's centre-right coalition includes a small but vocal band of rebels who voted "no" to the ESM in the Bundestag on Friday.

Klaus-Peter Willsch, a member of the Bundestag from Merkel's Christian Democrats (CDU), said the concessions would result in "Germany being liable for everyone".

CDU budget expert Norbert Barthle said the Bundestag must approve any future decisions on direct recapitalisation of euro zone banks by the ESM, adding: "Clearly such aid would also only be guaranteed under strict conditions and control."

IMPOSING MORE EUROPE

While backing the fiscal compact on Friday in return for government concessions on economic growth, opposition parties repeated their criticism of Merkel's emphasis on austerity measures, saying they had exacerbated the euro crisis.

"I only hope the growth initiatives have not come too late," Sigmar Gabriel, chairman of the centre-left main opposition Social Democrats (SPD), told the Bundestag.

"We are voting 'yes' (to the fiscal pact) because Europe is more important than party political rivalries."

The bailout scheme cannot come into effect without German backing as it needs approval by countries making up 90 percent of its capital base. This has now been put back to July 9, with only a handful of the euro zone's 17 countries having complied.

But Germany risks missing the second deadline too, due to the need for the backing of the Constitutional Court, which has slapped the government's wrist before for taking short cuts on European policy.

This could take weeks. In a series of rulings since 2009, the court in Karlsruhe has expressed reservations about the steady transfer of power to Brussels, and affirmed the right of Germany's parliament to vet decisions taken at European level.

Tension between Germany's democratic principles and a push to give Brussels more power to intervene in national policy appears to be approaching breaking point.

The court, bombarded by petitions from politicians and academics to block the ESM, may decide to clear the bailout and fiscal pact but demand steps "to ensure that the upper and lower houses of parliament are sufficiently involved", said Daniel Thym, law professor at the University of Constance.

There is a chance it could link approval to a change in the constitution - which would require Germany's first national referendum in the post-war era. At the very least, experts say the could warn that approval of any future integration, beyond the ESM and fiscal compact, would require constitutional change.

Calling a referendum would be a risky ploy in Germany, where Adolf Hitler gave plebiscites a bad name in the 1930s by using them to amass power as Fuehrer, stuff the Reichstag with Nazis and legitimise occupying the Rhineland and annexing Austria.

But europhile Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble says the changes being contemplated - on the road to "political and fiscal union" - may need a referendum sooner than many think.

The leader of Merkel's Bavarian ally, the CSU, Horst Seehofer, wrote in business daily Handelsblatt: "Politicians cannot simply impose more Europe on us from the top down ... That's why I'm pleading for our constitution to allow us to have referendums on all important European matters."

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies as Europe deal boosts risk bid

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies as Europe deal boosts risk bid
Jun 29th 2012, 20:32

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Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:32pm EDT

  * Ends at C$1.0181 vs US$, or 98.22 U.S. cents      * Biggest daily percent move since Aug 2011      * Currency rallies along with euro, global stocks      * Extends gains after stronger April GDP data      * Bonds prices descend across curve        By Jennifer Kwan      TORONTO, June 29 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar rose to a  one-week high on Friday as a deal among European leaders on  measures to contain the region's debt crisis boosted investor  confidence.      Investors were willing to take on more risk after euro zone  leaders agreed on Friday to let their rescue fund inject aid  directly into stricken banks from next year and intervene on  bond markets to support troubled member states.       The agreement helped push the Canadian currency up more than  1.5 percent, while U.S. and global stocks notched gains of 2  percent or more.      Oil prices soared more than 9 percent on optimism the  measures would stem Europe's debt crisis and help revive global  growth.         "The market was looking for nothing. They get something like  this agreement," said John Curran, senior vice president at  CanadianForex. "Expectations were very low. So getting something  out of it has excited people."      David Bradley, director of foreign exchange trading at  Scotiabank, characterized the global market move as a "risk  rally."      "Everyone's buying risk after what happened, (and) the  comments from Europe. I think this move has caught a lot of  people off guard," he said.      Stronger than forecasted domestic data also aided the  Canadian currency.      A rebound in oil output helped deliver surprisingly strong  Canadian economic growth of 0.3 percent in April after two  months of limp readings, according to Statistics Canada data  released on Friday. The market had forecasted growth of 0.2  percent.       The Canadian currency ended at C$1.0181 to the  greenback, or 98.22 U.S. cents, after embracing a high of  C$1.0166, or 98.37 U.S. cents, its strongest since June 20. It  was the currency's strongest percent gain move since August  2011. The Canadian dollar finished Thursday at C$1.0328 to the  greenback, or 96.82 U.S. cents.      Yields on 10-year Spanish and Italian debt retreated and the  common currency rose more than 1.5 percent.       Canada mostly underperformed against most major currencies  including the euro and commodity-linked New Zealand and  Australian dollars.      The currency ended the week up 0.6 percent, and was higher  by 1.4 percent for the month. It capped the quarter with a 2  percent loss.      Elsewhere, Canadian bond prices were lower across the curve  with the two-year Canadian government bond sank 16  Canadian cents to yield 1.031 percent, while the benchmark  10-year bond dropped 56 Canadian cents to yield  1.737 percent.  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 1-Specs lift US dollar bets in latest week-CFTC

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
UPDATE 1-Specs lift US dollar bets in latest week-CFTC
Jun 29th 2012, 20:40

Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:40pm EDT

  NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Currency speculators increased  their bets in favor of the U.S. dollar in the latest week,  according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission  released on Friday.      The value of the dollar's net long position rose to $26.73  billion in the week ended June 26, from $22.13 billion the  previous week.      The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar  position is derived from net positions of International Monetary  Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc,  Canadian and Australian dollars.      Short euro bets, meanwhile, rose to 159,880 contracts from  net shorts of 141,066 a week earlier as euro zone risks  escalated in the run up to the European Union summit which  concluded on Friday.       To be short a currency is to bet it will decline in value,  while being long is a view its value will rise.      Prior to Friday's gains, the euro was on a downward  trajectory as investors were skeptical that European leaders  would come up with a viable solution to address the worsening  debt crisis in the region.       The EU did come up with a proposal, but analysts remained  leery of the deal and many viewed it as a short-term solution to  an endemic problem.      Euro short positions could probably decrease next week given  the unexpected EU outcome, but bets against the single euro zone  currency will remain for some time.      Other notable changes in this week's CFTC report was the  sharp reduction in the yen long position to 4,542 contracts.      Japan's Prime Minister Yoshihiko Noda faces the risk of a  split in his party that could trigger a snap election after his  signature tax increase plan cleared parliament's lower house on  Tuesday despite its rejection by a group of party rebels.      The tax hike is aimed at curbing Japan's growing public  debt, which already exceeds two years' worth of its economic  output. Analysts at Morgan Stanley say the move to raise taxes  will give the Bank of Japan more leeway to ease monetary policy  and that is likely to be negative for the yen.      Speculators also reduced their short position on sterling to  758 contracts this week from 17,153 shorts previously even  though analysts are widely expecting another round of  quantitative easing in the UK.      Sterling like the dollar has been benefiting from safe-haven  flowsas euro zone risks deteriorated.             JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen) -714,330,649.22                    6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long          43,910               44,740     Short         39,368               29,603     Net            4,542               15,137         EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros) 24,959,266,500.00               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long          36,933               54,449     Short        196,813              195,515     Net         -159,880             -141,066         POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)  74,080,287.50               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long          35,296               32,248     Short         36,054               49,401     Net             -758              -17,153         SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)  3,099,126,274.18               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long           4,637               24,108     Short         28,473               31,115     Net          -23,836               -7,007         CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)  -905,868,567.52               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long          27,778               27,808     Short         18,501               19,607     Net            9,277                8,201         AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)  217,195,400.00               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long          40,023               41,121     Short         42,182               44,579     Net           -2,159               -3,458         MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos) 277,991,856.91               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long          32,190               22,801     Short         39,837               37,475     Net           -7,647              -14,674         NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand  dollars) -45,509,760.00               6/26/12 week         6/19/12 week     Long           6,108                3,564     Short          5,532                5,777     Net              576               -2,213  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro soars on EU deal; investors remain cautious

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
FOREX-Euro soars on EU deal; investors remain cautious
Jun 29th 2012, 20:17

Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:17pm EDT

  * EU leaders allow more flexibility in rescue funds      * Skepticism remains; scope for more gains limited      * Aussie, kiwi dollars rally, while safe-haven USD tumbles        NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - The euro remained on track for  its biggest one-day gain against the dollar in eight months on  Friday after euro zone leaders agreed on measures to stabilize  banks and reduce borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, but the  rally looked set to be short-lived.      Euro zone leaders agreed that its rescue funds could be used  to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries that comply  with EU budget rules to adopt extra austerity measures or  economic reforms.       Details of the agreement, which also includes the creation  of a single supervisory body for euro area banks, remain  unclear. Still, the outcome surprised investors who had  positioned for the euro to weaken as expectation for any action  during a two-day European Union summit had all but vanished.      "This is another Band-Aid," said Michael Woolfolk, senior  currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "There was not  anything material that came out of the discussion that would  help resolve the crisis."      Woolfolk said he maintained his three-month forecast for  euro/dollar at $1.20, adding that the summit "actually  reinforces it."      The euro rose as high as $1.2692 on Reuters data, the  strongest since June 21, and was last at $1.2646, up 1.7 percent  and on track for its biggest daily percentage rise since late  October.      Despite Friday's gains, the euro zone common currency was on  pace for a loss of 5.2 percent this quarter, the biggest since  September.      Spanish and Italian government bond yields fell sharply on  the EU deal, while 10-year Irish government bond yields fell to  their lowest since before the country agreed to its  international bailout.      Against the yen, the euro jumped to a one-week high of  101.39 yen and was last at 101.16, up 2.4 percent. It  was the biggest one-day gain since March 2011, using Reuters  data.       The euro also rose 0.8 percent versus sterling to 80.79  pence.      Neil Jones, head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate  Bank in London, said the expectation for end-of-month window  dressing in the stock market "is forcing the 'risk on' hand".      "The euro (is) responding by moving higher and triggering  short-covering," he said.      Net short euro bets rose to 159,880 contracts from net short  positions of 141,066 in the prior week, according to data  tabulated to Tuesday but released by the Commodity Futures  Trading Commission on Friday.       Much of the change was from a drop of 17,516 contracts in  long positions, not from the rise of 1,298 contracts in short  positions.       The most recent data from Toronto-based OANDA showed  investors were 54.59 percent euro short, or betting against the  euro versus the dollar, as New York trading drew to a close on  Friday.                 The dollar rose 0.6 percent to 79.89 yen but was on  track for a quarterly loss of 3.5 percent, also the largest  since September.            ECB EYED      Analysts said the euro could make further near-term gains,  supported by month- and quarter-end flows. But they expect the  rally to fade next week as investors worry some steps are just  short-term solutions and others will take time to implement.      Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan  Stanley in London, said he does not expect it to rise much  beyond $1.27. "It will not be too long before the market  realizes there is not much new in the agreement, and that  anything that is new has a huge amount of conditionality in it."      Traders said the euro could struggle ahead of chart  resistance at the $1.2747 June high. Near-term support was at  the 21-day moving average, currently at $1.2546, with stop-loss  sell orders reported below.      Some analysts pointed to execution risks in the move to  empower the European Central Bank with a supervisory role that  could prove to be contentious. The market would also soon start  to question whether the euro zone's rescue fund has enough  resources to recapitalize banks and buy peripheral bonds.      Attention will turn to an ECB meeting next week, with an  increasing number of analysts expecting policymakers to opt to  cut interest rates from their current 1 percent.       The rally in risk appetite buoyed higher-yielding,  growth-linked currencies. The Australian dollar rallied to the  strongest since early May and last traded at $1.0229, up 1.9  percent. The New Zealand dollar rose 1.6 percent  to $0.8003.  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: U.S. presidential election leaves dollar investors flat

Reuters: US Dollar Report
Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com
U.S. presidential election leaves dollar investors flat
Jun 29th 2012, 20:21

By Nick Olivari and Julie Haviv

NEW YORK, June 29 | Fri Jun 29, 2012 4:21pm EDT

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - Romney or Obama? Republican or Democrat? The U.S. presidential election may inflame voter passions, but based on past experience, whoever wins the world's most powerful elected office isn't likely to move the dollar.

The U.S. dollar's performance over the past 40 years shows little relation to the party holding the presidency and more to do with the global and domestic economies.

Its post-election performance will hinge on factors ranging from the euro zone debt crisis to corporate profits and Federal Reserve policy. Congressional elections will play a major role, with a raft of U.S. budget issues converging at year-end.

Also, while the dollar has strengthened during Europe's crisis, a full recovery from the greenback's decade-long downtrend is not a foregone conclusion, with recent data showing strong economic headwinds for the United States.

"The dollar is benefiting from the mess in the euro zone, but things are not much better here," said Axel Merk, portfolio manager of the $650 million Merk Hard Currency Fund in Palo Alto, California. "I don't have too much confidence in either candidate."

Under President Barack Obama, a Democrat, the dollar's value against a basket of six currencies has fallen 5.4 percent since he took office in January, 2009.

So how did the dollar do under past presidents?

Republican Richard Nixon ended the gold standard and fixed exchange rates existing since World War Two. From that point in 1971 to his 1974 resignation, the dollar fell 13.78 percent.

The economy, however, grew 3.4 percent, 5.3 percent and 5.8 percent in 1971, 1972 and 1973, respectively, before shrinking by 0.6 percent in 1974.

The dollar bounced back modestly under Republican Gerald Ford and then tumbled 13 percent during the four-year term of Democrat Jimmy Carter in the late 1970s.

Modest gains under Ronald Reagan were mostly erased during fellow Republican George H. Bush's administration.

Democrat President Bill Clinton's eight-year term coincided with a 20 percent gain in the dollar, which was then obliterated by the 23 percent fall during Republican President George W. Bush's eight years in office. That was the worst drop during any presidency since the move to flexible exchange rates in 1971.

The dollar's drop for the majority of President George W. Bush's time in the White House came against a backdrop of modest-to-strong economic growth. Gross domestic product was as low as 1 percent in 2007, but as high as 4.1 percent and 3.5 percent in 2000 and 2004, respectively.

During Bush's last year in the oval office, 2008, the economy shrank by 0.3 percent as the worst recession since the Great Depression took hold in the latter part of the year.

Swings in the dollar's performance can be even more dramatic when considering an eight-year presidency from the first term to the next.

The dollar index gained nearly 67 percent in the first four years of Reagan's term but fell 37 percent in the second, leaving it with a 5.3 percent gain overall.

In the Clinton years, the dollar dipped marginally in his first term before surging more than 20 percent in the second.

Most of the drop under George W. Bush occurred in the first term, followed by a slight gain in the second.

That pattern leaves Obama looking largely average and the potential for the winner of November's election to look much better to dollar investors, or equally, much worse.

"It is still early to conclude definitively regarding the U.S. election and the dollar because the make-up of both houses and their relationship with the White House is just as important as the outright winner of the presidential race," said Ken Dickson, investment director of currencies at Standard Life Investments, which manages assets $256.6 billion.

"The best result would be a real consensus to plan to tackle the deficit within a time scale that avoids the risk of harming the still-fragile growth recovery," said Dickson.

Chris Fernandes, vice president, senior foreign exchange adviser for the capital markets division at Bank of the West in San Ramon, California, said currency moves stemming from the presidential campaign would likely come from a congressional stalemate, "as both sides dig in their heels prior to November."

Fernandes, who helps oversee the capital markets division's almost $10 billion in assets under management, including currencies, added: "However, given the entrenched Washington deadlock that we have witnessed over the past few years, even that scenario has long been priced into foreign exchange markets."

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies to one-week high on Europe deal

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies to one-week high on Europe deal
Jun 29th 2012, 18:42

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Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:42pm EDT

  * C$ rises to high of 98.37 U.S. cents      * Biggest daily percent move since Aug 2011      * Currency rallies along with euro, global stocks      * Extends gains after stronger April GDP data      * Bonds prices descend across curve        By Jennifer Kwan      TORONTO, June 29 (Reuters) - Canada's dollar rose to a  one-week high on Friday on a deal among European leaders on  measures to contain the region's debt crisis and on  stronger-than-expected domestic growth data.      Investors were willing to take on more risk after euro zone  leaders agreed on Friday to let their rescue fund inject aid  directly into stricken banks from next year and intervene on  bond markets to support troubled member states.          The agreement helped push the Canadian currency up more than  1.5 percent while U.S. and global stocks notched gains of 2  percent. Oil prices soared more than 6 percent on optimism the  measures would stem Europe's debt crisis and help revive global  growth.         "The market was looking for nothing. They get something like  this agreement," said John Curran, senior vice president at  CanadianForex. "Expectations were very low. So getting something  out of it has excited people."      David Bradley, director of foreign exchange trading at  Scotiabank, characterized the global market move as a "risk  rally"      "Everyone's buying risk after what happened, (and) the  comments from Europe. I think this move has caught a lot of  people off guard," he said.      Also aiding the Canadian currency was stronger than  forecasted domestic growth data.       A rebound in oil output helped deliver surprisingly strong  Canadian economic growth of 0.3 percent in April after two  months of limp readings, according to Statistics Canada data  released on Friday. The market had forecasted growth of 0.2  percent.       At around 2:10 p.m. (1810 GMT), the Canadian currency   was at C$1.0180 to the greenback, or 98.23 U.S. cents,  after embracing a high of C$1.0166, or 98.37 U.S. cents, its  strongest since June 20. It was the currency's strongest percent  gain move since August 2011.      The Canadian dollar finished Thursday's session at C$1.0328  to the greenback, or 96.82 U.S. cents.      The currency clawed back from the three-week low it hit on  Thursday on the European summit progress, even though there was  no movement towards common euro zone bonds, which leaders  including Italy's Mario Monti and France's Francois Hollande  have called for.      Yields on 10-year Spanish and Italian debt retreated and the  common currency rose more than 1.5 percent.        Canada mostly underperformed against most major currencies  including the euro and commodity-linked New Zealand and  Australian dollars.      Elsewhere, Canadian bond prices were lower across the curve  with the two-year Canadian government bond sank 16  Canadian cents to yield 1.031 percent, while the benchmark  10-year bond dropped 56 Canadian cents to yield  1.737 percent.  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro, oil, stocks rally after euro zone deal

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Euro, oil, stocks rally after euro zone deal
Jun 29th 2012, 18:23

Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:23pm EDT

* Euro spikes about 2.0 percent in biggest daily gain in 8 months

* World stocks, crude oil jump after euro zone deal

* Spanish and Italian bond yields fall

By Herbert Lash

NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - The euro jumped nearly 2 percent, oil prices surged and world stocks rallied o n F riday after euro zone leaders agreed on measures to cut soaring borrowing costs in Italy and Spain, in addition to directly recapitalizing regional banks.

Spanish and Italian government bond yields fell sharply, while safe-haven U.S. and German government debt sold off after the region's leaders agreed that European Union bailout funds could be used to stabilize bond markets to support countries that comply with EU policy recommendations.

EU leaders also agreed after 14 hours of intense talks that creation of a single supervisory body for euro zone banks, housed under the European Central Bank, would be discussed by year-end - a first step toward a banking union in the euro zone.

Markets rallied on the news, which caught investors by surprise, as expectations for meaningful steps to tackle the debilitating debt crisis had all but disappeared in the run-up to the two-day EU summit.

"We've gotten used to being underwhelmed by the outcomes, so with little to no expectations for success, the fact that it appears we are going to get something substantial is a real important positive for the market in the near term," said Art Hogan, managing director of Lazard Capital Markets in New York.

"It's inching closer to a banking union and the closer we get to a banking union would put (the EU) well on the road to a fiscal union."

The euro surged against the U.S. dollar, climbing as high as $1.2692 on Reuters data, the strongest since June 21. It was last at $1.2657.

Stocks on Wall Street rose almost 2 percent, following a jump in Europe that pushed indexes up more than 2 percent, spurred by soaring bank shares.

The Dow Jones industrial average was up 232.72 points, or 1.85 percent, at 12,834.98. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was up 27.43 points, or 2.06 percent, at 1,356.47. The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 74.85 points, or 2.63 percent, at 2,924.34.

In Europe, the FTSE Eurofirst 300 index closed 2.6 percent higher, with banks up 4.1 percent. MSCI's all-country world equity index gained 2.7 percent and its emerging markets index climbed 3.4 percent.

The price of safe-haven German bonds headed lower - briefly pushing yields above their U.S. equivalents for the first time since early February - while prices for gold, oil and copper all rose.

Yields on 10-year German debt rose as high as 1.691 percent, before paring gains to 1.584 percent. Their U.S. counterpart, the benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note , was down 22/32 in price to yield 1.6569 percent.

Yields on Italian 10-year debt fell to 5.832 percent from 6.192 percent the previous night, while yields on the Spanish equivalent fell to 6.346 percent, down from the close of 6.915 percent on Thursday.

"EU support for Spain and Italy looks more real today than it has any time the last three years," said Chris Rupkey, managing director and chief financial economist at Bank of Tokyo/Mitsubishi UFJ in New York. "This is not a 'buy some time' fix. It's big."

Despite the market euphoria, some remained skeptical.

Derek Halpenny at Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ in London said among lingering questions is whether the firepower available to the rescue funds will be enough to stabilize the 2.5 trillion euro Spanish and Italian bond markets, and how easy it will be to agree on the banking supervisory mechanism.

"Our initial view is this deal is no game-changer."

Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments, said that bond yields in many European countries are still too high and growth rates too low.

"We really didn't see any actions by the authorities last night which are going to have a material impact on either of those," Milligan said.

Oil prices rallied, but were still set for the deepest quarterly loss since 2008.

Brent crude for August was up $5.68 to $97.04 a barrel. U.S. crude was up $6.24 a barrel at $83.93 a barrel, up from an eight-month low hit on Thursday.

Copper rose more than 4 percent to hit a 1-month high, while gold prices rallied almost 3 percent.

Spot gold prices rose $48.47 to $1,599.70 an ounce. The Reuters/Jefferies CRB Index, a benchmark of 19 commodities, was up 4.1 percent at 282.81.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro soars on EU deal; investors remain cautious

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FOREX-Euro soars on EU deal; investors remain cautious
Jun 29th 2012, 18:00

Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:00pm EDT

  * EU leaders allow more flexibility in rescue funds      * Skepticism remains; scope for more gains limited      * Aussie, kiwi dollars rally, while safe-haven USD tumbles        NEW YORK, June 29 (Reuters) - The euro was on track for its  best day against the dollar in eight months on Friday after euro  zone leaders agreed on measures to stabilize banks and reduce  borrowing costs for Italy and Spain, but the rally looked set to  be short-lived.      Euro zone leaders agreed that its rescue funds could be used  to stabilize bond markets without forcing countries that comply  with EU budget rules to adopt extra austerity measures or  economic reforms.       Details of the agreement, which also includes the creation  of a single supervisory body for euro area banks, remain  unclear. Still, the outcome surprised investors who had  positioned for the euro to weaken as expectation for any action  during a two-day European Union summit had all but vanished.      "This is another band-aid," said Michael Woolfolk, senior  currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "There was not  anything material that came out of the discussion that would  help resolve the crisis."      Woolfolk said he maintained his three-month forecast for  euro/dollar at $1.20. The summit "actually reinforces it," he  said.      The euro rose as high as $1.2692 on Reuters data, the  strongest since June 21, and was last at $1.2660, up 1.8 percent  and on track for its biggest percentage daily rise since late  October.      Despite Friday's gains, the euro zone common currency was on  pace for a loss of 5.1 percent this quarter, the biggest since  September.      Spanish and Italian government bond yields fell sharply on  the EU deal, while 10-year Irish government bond yields fell to  their lowest since before the country agreed to its  international bailout.      Against the yen, the euro jumped to a one-week high of  101.39 and was last at 101.05, up 2.3 percent., it was  the biggest one-day gain since March, 2011.       The euro also rose 0.7 percent versus sterling to 80.67  pence..      Neil Jones, head of hedge fund sales at Mizuho Corporate  Bank in London, said the expectation for end-of-month window  dressing in the stock market "is forcing the 'risk on' hand.      "The euro (is) responding by moving higher and triggering  short-covering," he said.      The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 79.81 yen but was on  track for a quarterly loss of 3.5 percent, also the largest  since September.            ECB EYED      Analysts said the euro could make further near-term gains,  supported by month- and quarter-end flows. But they expect the  rally to fade next week as investors worry some steps are just  short-term solutions and others will take time to implement.      Ian Stannard, head of European currency strategy at Morgan  Stanley in London, said he does not expect it to rise much  beyond $1.27. "It will not be too long before the market  realizes there is not much new in the agreement, and that  anything that is new has a huge amount of conditionality in it."      Traders said the euro could struggle ahead of chart  resistance at the $1.2747 June high. Near-term support was at  the 21-day moving average, currently at $1.2546, with stop-loss  sell orders reported below.      Some analysts pointed to execution risks in the move to  empower the European Central Bank with a supervisory role that  could prove to be contentious. The market would also soon start  to question whether the euro zone's rescue fund has enough  resources to recapitalize banks and buy peripheral bonds.      Attention will turn to an ECB meeting next week, with an  increasing number of analysts expecting policymakers to opt to  cut interest rates from their current 1 percent.       The rally in risk appetite buoyed higher-yielding,  growth-linked currencies. The Australian dollar rallied to the  strongest since early May, and last traded at $1.0244, up 2.1  percent. The New Zealand dollar rose 1.9 percent  to $0.8023.      "For now, it's about the belief that the euro area has  bought some more time," David Rosenberg, chief economist and  strategist at Gluskin Sheff, wrote to clients. "Though this cuts  both ways -- it just means ongoing volatility until there is a  concrete resolution at hand."  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies to one-week high on Europe deal

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ rallies to one-week high on Europe deal
Jun 29th 2012, 18:38

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Schaeuble: no euro bonds in my lifetime either

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Schaeuble: no euro bonds in my lifetime either
Jun 29th 2012, 18:00

BERLIN, June 29 | Fri Jun 29, 2012 2:00pm EDT

BERLIN, June 29 (Reuters) - German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble echoed Angela Merkel's pledge that Europe would have no common euro bonds in her lifetime, saying on Friday they wouldn't happen as long as he lived either unless other radical reforms occurred first.

"Euro bonds, if understood as euro bonds without common liability and without common financial policy, are something that I don't want in my lifetime either," Schaeuble said.

He was speaking to the Bundestag (lower house) ahead of a vote to ratify a permanent euro zone bailout mechanism and a new fiscal pact for budget discipline across Europe.

Merkel, who usually avoids emotive language, caused a stir this week with comments reported from a closed-door meeting that she would not accept euro bonds as long as she lived.

This was a blow to any remaining hopes among champions of euro bonds, such as French President Francois Holland, that the conservative German chancellor might have a change of heart.

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