Monday, August 6, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro edges higher vs dollar on ECB hopes

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro edges higher vs dollar on ECB hopes
Aug 6th 2012, 18:32

Mon Aug 6, 2012 2:32pm EDT

  * Euro rises to highest since July 5      * Optimism limited on prospect of ECB action      * Analysts say euro bounce could draw more selling          By Wanfeng Zhou      NEW YORK, Aug 6 (Reuters) - The euro edged higher against  the dollar on Monday, extending previous session's gains on  hopes the European Central Bank will take action to lower  borrowing costs for Spain and Italy.      With little news to drive markets, investors continued to  focus on comments from ECB President Mario Draghi last week,  when he said the bank will draw up plans for bond buying in the  coming weeks.      Gains in the equity market sparked by Friday's data showing  surprisingly strong U.S. jobs growth in July also boosted the  euro, prompting investors to pare back hefty bets against the  currency.      "Investors are less pessimistic about the euro zone  situation," said Aroop Chatterjee, senior currency strategist at  Barclays Capital in New York. "There is the expectation that  something positive will come out of the ECB plan and so  investors are more willing to search for risky assets that look  attractive."      "European assets, for instance, have been somewhat depressed  over the last few weeks and it's not surprising that the euro  benefits from this easing in risk aversion," he said.      The euro last traded 0.2 percent higher at $1.2403,  below a one-month peak of $1.2443 hit in Asian trade. Gains in  the euro over the last two days totaled nearly 2 percent, its  best two-day showing since late October.      Near-term resistance for the euro was seen around $1.2478,  the 61.8 percent retracement of its drop from a mid-June peak to  a two-year low of $1.2042 struck in late July.      Yet doubts persisted about the ECB's proposed plan of action  and many saw more pain for the euro zone before any resolution  to the crisis is reached. This meant some investors were  inclined to use the euro's bounce to place fresh bets the  currency would weaken.      ECB President Mario Draghi said last week the bank would act  only in cooperation with the euro zone bailout funds, and would  require countries to first ask for help. Spanish Prime Minister  Mariano Rajoy has signaled he may seek a full-blown aid package  but is still undecided.       "There is a definite dichotomy in investor sentiment at the  moment," said Andrew Cox, currency strategist at CitiFX in New  York. "There has been a good bit of interest from shorter-term  traders to fade the recent bout of euro strength given the lack  of action and follow-through from Draghi last week."      On the other hand, Cox cited continued demand for real  assets in Europe, both sovereign debt and equities, "which we  feel is driven by the dissipation of euro zone tail risk -- a  development that could continue to support the euro in the  coming weeks."      The common currency was down 0.3 percent against the yen at  96.90, having earlier risen to 97.79 yen, its  strongest since mid-July. The euro was also slightly lower  against the Swiss franc and 0.3 percent weaker against  the Norwegian crown.      Spanish and Italian bond yields fell on Monday, led by  shorter-dated paper. Two-year Spanish yields have  more than halved from euro-era peaks above 7 percent hit on July  25 to 3.42 percent.      Traders said a narrowing in peripheral bond yield spread  over Germany was likely to offer some support to the euro in the  near term. Besides, hefty speculative bets against the euro  meant that the common currency could gain some ground due to  unwinding of those positions, before falling again.  
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