Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro climbs vs dollar, eyeing Bernanke speech, ECB meeting

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FOREX-Euro climbs vs dollar, eyeing Bernanke speech, ECB meeting Aug 28th 2012, 16:18 Tue Aug 28, 2012 12:18pm EDT * Bernanke seen sustaining easing expectations * Euro stronger after Draghi Jackson Hole cancellation * Euro within sight of seven-week high against dollar By Wanfeng Zhou NEW YORK, Aug 28 (Reuters) - The euro rose against the dollar for the first time in three days on Tuesday, buoyed by hopes of bond-buying by the European Central Bank to contain the debt crisis and expectations of further easing by the Federal Reserve. Investors awaited key events in the coming days and weeks, including a speech by Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke on Friday, a policy meeting by the ECB on Sept. 6 and the German Constitutional Court's ruling on the euro zone's permanent bailout fund on Sept. 12. Bernanke is speaking at a conference in Jackson Hole, Wyoming and is expected to sustain expectations for a third round of quantitative easing (QE), though he could keep markets guessing about the timing of such an action. Further QE bodes ill for the dollar as it is tantamount to printing money. "Keep in mind that the third-quarter rebound is not as robust as some had hoped so far and that there is a lot of data that will come out before the September (Fed) meeting," said Michael Woolfolk, senior currency strategist at BNY Mellon in New York. "If he does confirm or make comments that are consistent with further monetary easing, then that would be viewed as negative for the dollar and positive for risk." The euro rose 0.5 percent to $1.2559, having hit a session peak of $1.2576, not far from a seven-week high of $1.2589 set last Thursday, according to Reuters data. Strong resistance for euro/dollar lies around $1.2600, the 100-day moving average of 1.2601. Traders said liquidity was thin and that the euro's gains were fueled by a large U.S. investment bank buying a one-month euro/dollar option with a strike price at $1.2675, suggesting the euro could rise to those levels in coming weeks. "There's a very large euro call (option) that has been the catalyst for the rise but I think we will play the ranges this week," said Richard Wiltshire, chief FX broker at ETX Capital. "Everyone will sit on their hands ... until we get some kind of interest from Jackson Hole. Negative news from the euro zone seems to have abated a little bit." ECB HOPE The euro also drew strength from news Tuesday that ECB President Mario Draghi cancelling his appearance at the Jackson Hole meeting this week, citing a heavy workload as he gears up for a critical policymaking meeting next week [ID:nnL6E8JS6Z4} "The interpretation being instead that he will be busy finalizing the details of policy proposals to be unveiled in the coming weeks," said Nick Bennenbroek, head of currency strategy at Wells Fargo Bank in New York. The dollar fell 0.3 percent to 78.50 yen, with the pair stuck in a tight range of 78.77 and 78.44 yen. In a sign of expectations of range-bound trade, implied volatilities on dollar/yen options remained around 6.5 percent , one of the lowest levels in recent years. The commodity-linked Australian dollar hit an almost five-week low of $1.0345 on worries of a slowing Chinese economy. The dollar index, which measures the value of the greenback versus a basket of currencies, fell 0.4 percent to 81.319 , near a one-month low set last week. The dollar has come under pressure against most major currencies, including the euro, since minutes last week of the U.S. central bank's latest policy meeting suggested the Fed could launch another round of stimulus fairly soon. Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington, warned of the risk of disappointment. "Given that market expectations remain so elevated, the risk of disappointment remains high. Lack of Fed QE3 or a watered-down plan from the ECB would leave the euro vulnerable," he said. Market players also trimmed bets in favor of the dollar after a media report flagged the possibility of a downgrade to the U.S. credit rating. Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints

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