Friday, November 30, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real, rates slide after disappointing GDP

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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EMERGING MARKETS-Brazil real, rates slide after disappointing GDP
Nov 30th 2012, 23:51

Fri Nov 30, 2012 6:51pm EST

  * Brazil's 3rd-quarter GDP grows 0.6 pct, half what was  expected      * Mexico keeps rates on hold, backs off from hike threat      * Brazil real drops 1.57 pct, Mexico peso stable          By Walter Brandimarte and Jean Arce      RIO DE JANEIRO/MEXICO CITY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Brazil's  currency slid on Friday after data showed the country's economy  grew at half the rate economists expected in the third quarter,  bolstering bets the government will accept a weaker real to  boost growth.      Elsewhere in Latin America, currencies were dragged down by  an ongoing stalemate in the United States over how to avoid a  package of tax increases and spending cuts set to kick in on Jan  2 that could plunge that country into recession.      On Friday, President Barack Obama accused a "handful of  Republicans" in the House of Representatives of holding up  legislation to extend tax cuts for middle-class Americans to try  to preserve them for the wealthy.       Republican U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John  Boehner said Republicans and Obama are locked in a stalemate, a  month before a $600 billion "fiscal cliff" is set to kick in  .      The Chilean peso fell 0.37 percent to close at 8.01 per  greenback.      The Mexican peso paired recent gains, falling 0.13  percent to close at 12.9640 per dollar after Mexico's central  bank backed away from a threat to raise interest rates, a move  which would boost the appeal of the currency.        The rate decision came just one day ahead of the  inauguration of President-elect Enrique Pena Nieto, who is  hoping to win over skeptics about the return of the centrist  Institutional Revolutionary Party, or PRI.      The party's reputation was marred by corruption,  authoritarianism and allegations of vote-rigging during its  71-year rule from 1929 to 2000. But investors may be more  interested in developments north of the border.       "The markets next week will be affected by the news about  the fiscal negotiations in the U.S. Congress, rather than the  positive news that could come out of the new Mexican  government," said Alfredo Coutino, director for Latin America at  Moody's Analytics.      The Brazilian real  fell 1.57 percent to 2.1299  per dollar after the government statistics agency IBGE said  gross domestic product expanded 0.6 percent in the third quarter  from the second quarter.       Economists expected the economy to grow 1.2 percent in that  comparison. Second-quarter growth was also revised down to only  0.2 percent, half what had been previously reported.      Also contributing to the real's weakness were dollar  outflows that normally take place at the end of the month, when  companies send profits abroad.      "Today is the end of the month, so we're seeing some  outflows," said Ures Folchini, a treasury vice president at  WestLB bank in Sao Paulo.      Folchini bets the real will gradually weaken as the  government continues to favor a weaker currency to boost the  economy, but warns of inflation risks.      "We need to be very careful. We can't have the real  weakening too much to help the economy while, on the other hand,  inflation erodes those gains."            LOWER SELIC?      With the government running out of alternatives to stimulate  the economy, some investors debated whether the central bank may  resume its monetary easing cycle, interrupted just this month.      That expectation knocked down domestic interest-rate  futures. The contract maturing in January 2014, one of  the most traded, plunged 11 basis points to 7.2 percent.      "The interest-rate market is melting because of the GDP,"  said Luis Otavio de Souza Leal, chief economist with Banco ABC  Brasil in Sao Paulo. "The market is even discussing the  possibility of a Selic cut in January."      Brazil's central bank kept the country's base interest rate  at an all-time low of 7.25 percent on Wednesday, signaling the  rate will remain at that level for a "prolonged period."         The GDP data at least makes the case for a stable Selic for  a long time, despite concerns about inflation, economists said.            Latin American FX prices at 1553 GMT       Currencies                            daily %  year-to-                                          change     ate %                                Latest              change   Brazil real                  2.1299     -1.57    -12.27                                                     Mexico peso                 12.9640     -0.13      7.76                                                     Argentina peso*              6.4200      0.31    -26.32                                                     Chile peso                 480.8000     -0.37      8.01                                                     Colombia peso            1,815.0000      0.01      6.80                                                     Peru sol                     2.5780     -0.08      4.62                                                     * Argentine peso's rate between                           brokerages  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Euro cuts gains versus US dollar after Moody's downgrades ESM, EFSF

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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Euro cuts gains versus US dollar after Moody's downgrades ESM, EFSF
Nov 30th 2012, 21:55

Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:55pm EST

The euro pared most gains versus the U.S. dollar in late Friday trade after Moody's downgraded the credit ratings on the European Stability Mechanism (ESM) and the European Financial Stability Fund (EFSF).

The ratings agency also maintained a negative outlook on ratings.

The euro traded as low as $1.2981 on Reuters data and was last at $1.2984, up 0.1 percent on the day.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ slips after weak Canada GDP, US consumer data

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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ slips after weak Canada GDP, US consumer data
Nov 30th 2012, 21:58

Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:58pm EST

* C$ at C$0.9936 to US$, or $1.0064

* Canada GDP growth sputters in Q3, exports fall fast

* U.S. consumer spending falls, points to weak growth in Q4

* Some C$ buying seen ahead of government's Nexen deal decision

* C$ notches minor slip on week, firmed 0.7 pct in November

By Alastair Sharp

TORONTO, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened marginally against the U.S. currency on Friday as domestic economic growth data disappointed the market and a fall in U.S. consumer spending pointed to troubles ahead for Canada's biggest export market.

The resource-linked currency saw some interest based on bets that Ottawa will approve a Chinese company's $15.1 billion acquisition of energy producer Nexen Inc next month, one analyst said.

"You may be getting some pre-positioning ahead of the Nexen decision that's coming up in a couple of weeks, with many thinking that the government will approve that," said John Curran, senior vice president at CanadianForex.

A Canadian cabinet member known to have reservations about the bid to buy Nexen said Friday that at least some of Canada's concerns about getting reciprocal treatment from China have been addressed by an investment pact.

But the broader influences on the currency were negative as figures showed Canadian economic growth was weak in the third quarter, and that U.S. consumers spent less in October.

"On a cross basis the Canadian dollar is doing OK, but against the U.S. it's just a non-event," Curran said, pointing to gains against the Japanese yen, British pound and New Zealand dollar.

The Canadian currency, acutely sensitive to signs of stagnation in the global economy, ended trade at C$0.9936 to the greenback, or $1.0064, compared with C$0.9928, or $1.0073, at Thursday's North American close.

That meant it recorded a slight 0.2 percent loss against the U.S. dollar for the week but firmed 0.7 percent against the greenback over the month.

CANADA GROWTH SLOWS

The Canadian economy grew at a weaker-than-expected 0.6 percent annual rate in the third quarter as exports fell at the fastest pace in more than three years, business investment sputtered and the housing market cooled.

That growth rate contrasts with the 2.7 percent rate notched in the United States for the quarter, and was below the 0.9 percent forecast for Canada in a Reuters poll.

The soft number adds to pressure on Canada's central bank to retract its stance that interest rates will need to be raised.

"I think the biggest market impact is that it's likely to have the Bank of Canada sound slightly more cautious, and that's also putting downward pressure on the Canadian dollar," said Camilla Sutton, chief currency strategist at Scotiabank.

The central bank is due to issue a monetary policy decision next Tuesday, with none of the forecasters polled by Reuters expecting a rate move.

Meanwhile, a fall in U.S. consumer spending in October pointed to Canada's biggest trading partner also recording slower growth in the current quarter.

It was the first fall in five months, though superstorm Sandy was cited as a factor in choking off car sales and causing work interruptions.

Government debt prices were broadly higher, with the two-year bond adding 2.5 Canadian cents to yield 1.067 percent and the benchmark 10-year bond rising 10 Canadian cents to yield 1.698 percent.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro rises for fourth straight month against dollar

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro rises for fourth straight month against dollar
Nov 30th 2012, 21:41

Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:41pm EST

  * Euro hits 7-month high vs yen, more than 5-week high vs  dollar      * U.S. fiscal talks dominate traders attention      * Expectations of BoJ easing add to selling pressure on yen        By Wanfeng Zhou      NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The euro rose to its highest in  more than five weeks against the dollar on Friday, posting its  fourth straight month of gains as investors clung to hopes that  U.S. politicians would reach a fiscal deal before the end of the  year.      The yen slumped and registered its worst month since  February against the dollar on speculation that a likely change  in Japan's government would lead to aggressive monetary easing.  Speculators boosted their bets against the yen to the highest  since May, 2007.       For the past few weeks, financial markets have traded on  headlines from U.S. political leaders on the "fiscal cliff," tax  hikes and spending cuts worth $600 billion set to kick in early  next year that could hurt the economy.      U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said  Republicans and President Barack Obama are locked in a  stalemate. Obama blamed Republicans who control the House for  holding up a deal.        "The market is sort of anticipating that some kind of a  compromise will be reached before December 31. That's the  mindset of the market right now," said Fabian Eliasson, vice  president of currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New  York.      The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.3001, having earlier  touched $1.3027 on Reuters data, its strongest level since Oct.  23. Traders reported offers at $1.3040-50.      For the month, the euro rose 0.3 percent against the dollar.      German lawmakers on Friday approved the latest Greek bailout  by a large majority, also helping euro sentiment. But the  outcome was widely expected.       Gains in Europe's shared currency came despite weak data  that included a sharp drop in German retail sales, a fall in  French consumer spending and record-high unemployment for the  euro zone.         The gloomy economic outlook for the euro zone should limit  further strength in the euro, analysts said.      "With unemployment still sitting at 11 percent in the euro  zone and inflation at just 2 percent, I can't see how the euro  can move up from here, other than people looking at an  alternative to the dollar," said Chris Gaffney, co-chief  investment officer at Everbank Wealth Management in St. Louis.      The euro dipped to session lows against the dollar after  weak U.S. personal income and spending data. The data dented the  market's risk appetite as investors sought the dollar for its  safety appeal.       "The disappointing data has dampened the modest enthusiasm  that major economies are gaining strength," said Joe Manimbo,  senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in  Washington. "The report also reinforces the fact that U.S.  growth in Q4 would be weak."       The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 82.51 yen, close to a  near eight-month high of 82.82 yen hit last week. It was on pace  for a gain of 3.4 percent in November, the biggest since  February.      The euro rose 0.6 percent to 107.19 yen. Earlier  it climbed to 107.66, its highest since late April. Traders  cited month-end demand for the euro from Japanese importers.       In November, the euro rallied 3.7 percent, the best month  since June against the yen.      Although Japan's main opposition leader, Shinzo Abe, a  front-runner to become the new prime minister, seemed to have  softened his aggressive stance on Bank of Japan independence, he  did reiterate his desire for the bank to buy foreign bonds.         "The market is gearing up toward the December 16 election,"  said Eliasson. He said with growing expectations of further  easing, the dollar could rise further, to 85 to 87 yen, if the  election goes as expected.        The dollar index ended the month of November up 0.3  percent after three straight months of losses.  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 1-EU's Rehn says strong commitment to keep euro area together

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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UPDATE 1-EU's Rehn says strong commitment to keep euro area together
Nov 30th 2012, 21:58

Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:58pm EST

NEW YORK Nov 30 (Reuters) - There is a very strong commitment to ensure the euro area will not break up, the EU's top economics official said on Friday, calling those speculating on an exit of Greece "behind the curve".

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn called the deal reached earlier this week to reduce Greece's debt burden a major milestone. He also highlighted that euro zone finance ministers are committed to further reducing Athens' debt if necessary once it has achieved a primary budget surplus, which is forecast for 2016.

"This shows the euro zone is practicing what it preaches when we say that we are ready to do whatever it takes to ensure the sustainability and irreversibility of the euro," said Rehn during a briefing with reporters in New York.

"Those who now speculate about the 'Grexit' are in fact behind the curve," he later added.

Rehn declined to give an explicit target figure for Greece's bond buyback plan with private investors, which is a key part of the country's aid deal.

Greece aims to cut its overall indebtedness by buying back bonds for less than it would have to pay if its creditors held them to maturity

The euro zone is hoping Greece will be able to repurchase at least 40 billion euros of its own bonds in a buyback operation with private investors, two euro zone officials said on Friday.

Rehn also did not comment on a question as to whether debt-burdened Spain will need a bailout, saying the framework for aid is there for once a request is made by any country.

The European Central Bank's bond-buying program, unveiled in early September, aims to support troubled countries such as Spain by reducing their borrowing costs, provided they request aid and submit to strict policy conditions and monitoring.

Spain has delayed requesting a bailout after the announcement of the program alone helped to bring debt costs sharply down.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 1-Long USD bets fall in latest week, yen shorts jump - CFTC

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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UPDATE 1-Long USD bets fall in latest week, yen shorts jump - CFTC
Nov 30th 2012, 21:25

NEW YORK | Fri Nov 30, 2012 4:25pm EST

NEW YORK Nov 30 (Reuters) - Currency speculators cut their bets in favor of the U.S. dollar in the latest w eek while they boosted short yen positions to a more than five-year high, a cc ording to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net long position fell to $8.01 billion in the week ended Nov. 27 from a long position of $11.2 billion the previous week.

Bets against the yen rose to 79,466 contracts, the highest since the beginning of May, 2007 when short positions reached 118,782 contracts, according to Reuters data. Short yen positions stood at 51,389 contracts in the previous week.

The yen has weakened significantly in recent sessions as speculation grew that a likely change in Japan's government would lead to aggressive monetary easing.

The yen hit a near eight-month low against the dollar last week and a seven-month low against the euro on Friday.

To be short a currency is to bet it will decline in value, while being long is a view its value will rise.

The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.

JAPANESE YEN (Contracts of 12,500,000 yen)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 27,027 28,272

Short 106,493 79,661

Net -79,466 -51,389

EURO (Contracts of 125,000 euros)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 35,799 36,692

Short 102,492 128,092

Net -66,693 -91,400

POUND STERLING (Contracts of 62,500 pounds sterling)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 51,107 46,546

Short 40,829 45,816

Net 10,278 730

SWISS FRANC (Contracts of 125,000 Swiss francs)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 9,744 7,220

Short 13,111 19,708

Net -3,367 -12,488

CANADIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Canadian dollars)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 72,663 72,893

Short 10,284 11,447

Net 62,379 61,446

AUSTRALIAN DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 Aussie dollars)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 122,186 104,617

Short 45,380 39,906

Net 76,806 64,711

MEXICAN PESO (Contracts of 500,000 pesos)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 101,490 96,451

Short 7,632 9,664

Net 93,858 86,787

NEW ZEALAND DOLLAR (Contracts of 100,000 New Zealand dollars)

11/27/12 week 11/20/12 week

Long 21,653 21,436

Short 2,943 3,578

Net 18,710 17,858

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Speculators trim long USD bets in latest week - CFTC

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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Speculators trim long USD bets in latest week - CFTC
Nov 30th 2012, 20:46

NEW YORK | Fri Nov 30, 2012 3:46pm EST

NEW YORK Nov 30 (Reuters) - Currency speculators cut their bets in favor of the U.S. dollar in the latest week, according to data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission released on Friday.

The value of the dollar's net long position fell to $8.01 billion in the week ended Nov. 27, from a long position of $11.2 billion the previous week.

To be short a currency is to bet it will decline in value, while being long is a view its value will rise.

The Reuters calculation for the aggregate U.S. dollar position is derived from net positions of International Monetary Market speculators in the yen, euro, British pound, Swiss franc, Canadian and Australian dollars.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 1-US Lawmakers press for action in China trade talks

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UPDATE 1-US Lawmakers press for action in China trade talks
Nov 30th 2012, 20:50

Fri Nov 30, 2012 3:50pm EST

WASHINGTON Nov 30 (Reuters) - Four senior U.S. lawmakers on Friday pressed for action on longstanding complaints about trade with China, as President Barack Obama's administration prepares to host senior Chinese officials for high-level talks in December.

"We are concerned that China continues to move away from market-based reforms and is more deeply embracing an economic model dominated by state-owned enterprises, World Trade Organization-inconsistent subsidies, and economic protectionism," the top Republicans and Democrats on the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee said in a letter to senior Obama administration officials.

"China's state capitalist model presents a range of issues that impact the future prosperity of the United States and the economic stability of the world," they said.

U.S. Trade Representative Ron Kirk and Acting Commerce Secretary Rebecca Blank are expected to host the U.S.-China Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade meeting in December, although exact dates have not been announced.

The annual meeting comes during a period of transition for both governments. Kirk is expected to leave office in the near future and Blank's continued service as Commerce secretary is uncertain in Obama's second term that begins in January.

China's ruling Communist Party unveiled a new top leadership in November. Vice President Xi Jinping took helm of the party, and will take over as head of state in March at the annual parliament meeting.

Chinese Vice Premier Wang Qishan has co-chaired the talks in recent years and remains part of the government, but it was not immediately clear if he would attend this year's meeting.

The U.S. lawmakers struck a weary tone in their letter as they noted their longstanding frustration with China's weak enforcement of intellectual property rights, opaque regulatory system and market access barriers.

"We have each written to you in the past about our key priorities and concerns. While incremental progress has been made, our list of concerns remains troublingly similar year-to-year," the lawmakers said.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: EU's Rehn-Strong commitment to keep euro area together

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EU's Rehn-Strong commitment to keep euro area together
Nov 30th 2012, 20:53

NEW YORK | Fri Nov 30, 2012 3:53pm EST

NEW YORK Nov 30 (Reuters) - There is a very strong commitment to ensure the euro area will not break up, the EU's top economics official said on Friday, calling those speculating on an exit of Greece "behind the curve".

EU Economic and Monetary Affairs Commissioner Olli Rehn declined to give an explicit target figure for Greece's bond buyback plan, though he noted it is an "important part" of the overall package to reduce Athens' debt.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-US deadlock, data see stocks fall; euro gains

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GLOBAL MARKETS-US deadlock, data see stocks fall; euro gains
Nov 30th 2012, 19:55

Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:55pm EST

* U.S. stocks fall on soft economic data

* Euro higher on European outlook; Spanish, Greek yields steady

* U.S. Treasury yields fall

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Major stock market indexes and Treasury yields slipped on Friday as concern about the stalemate in crucial U.S. budget talks added to worries about slowing economic growth in the world's largest economy, though the euro rose on the European outlook.

Adding to global fears were weak economic data from Brazil and Canada.

The euro fell to session lows against the dollar after data on U.S. consumer spending and income fell short of expectations , though it later recovered as investors focused on a better outlook for Europe after a deal between Greece and international lenders earlier in the week.

President Barack Obama accused a "handful of Republicans" in the House of Representatives on Friday of holding up legislation to extend tax cuts for middle-class Americans in order to try to preserve them for the wealthy.

"There is a stalemate; let's not kid ourselves," House Speaker John Boehner said on Friday, a month before the $600 billion "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts is set to kick in. His comments caused the euro to trim some gains.

"Washington brinkmanship and a delay in reaching an agreement on the 'fiscal cliff' are likely to rattle markets. These risks and uncertainties are likely to keep markets volatile," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 8.52 points, or 0.07 percent, at 13,013.30. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 1.13 points, or 0.08 percent, at 1,414.82. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 3.48 points, or 0.12 percent, at 3,008.54.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 2/32, with the yield at 1.613 percent.

A private report on business activity in the Chicago area in November matched economists' forecasts, portending moderate growth for the U.S. economy..

"These numbers were soft," said Ryan Sweet, senior economist with Moody's Analytics, shortly after the consumer spending data was released. "It's a sign that consumers are cautious. They are tightening their purse strings with the jobs market taking a step back. The 'fiscal cliff' will likely hit spending later even though it's not in the forefront of consumers' minds."

WORLD, EUROPEAN STOCKS SLIP

World and European stock indexes were also capped by U.S. uncertainty. The MSCI world equity index was little changed at 332.33, though it was still near its highest level for November, having added almost 1 percent on Thursday.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares slipped 0.2 percent to 1,119.36, following Thursday's 1.1 percent gain, which took it to a four-month closing high.

Still, European shares are on course for their best month since August and a sixth straight monthly gain as sentiment over the outlook for Europe has improved since a deal was reached on aid to Greece earlier this week.

Those signs have also helped the euro, which was up 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.3002 after climbing to a five-week high. The single currency touched a seven-month high against the yen.

Strong demand at an Italian bond auction this week, which cut Rome's borrowing costs to a two-year low, and falls in Spanish bond yields have encouraged investors to return to European assets.

Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields were stable at 5.268 percent and 4.484 percent respectively, well below their peak in July, when Spain's debt yielded more than 6 percent.

BRAZIL WEAKNESS

But elsewhere, the economic outlook was not so buoyant. Brazil's economy posted extremely disappointing growth in the third quarter, increasing pressure on President Dilma Rousseff to make deeper structural reforms and adding to fears that big emerging markets are getting dragged into the stagnant morass of the global economy.. The U.S. dollar rose 1.3 percent against the real.

Canada's economy lost some fizz in the third quarter as exports recorded their biggest drop in three years and businesses scaled back investments, though the slowdown is unlikely to knock the Bank of Canada off its rate-hike stance. The dollar was little changed against the Canadian dollar.

The U.S. fiscal crisis remains focus in oil markets due to its potential impact on demand from the world's biggest consumer. Crude was up ahead of the weekend.

Brent crude rose 0.3 percent to $111.12 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.8 percent to $88.87 a barrel.

"No significant progress seems to have been made in the U.S. budgetary dispute, which has led to profit-taking, especially since oil is trading at the upper end of its trading corridor," said Commerzbank oil analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Gold fell to $1,710.40 an ounce, buffeted by uncertainty over the U.S. budget crisis.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro rises vs dollar, heads for 4th straight month of gains

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FOREX-Euro rises vs dollar, heads for 4th straight month of gains
Nov 30th 2012, 19:21

Fri Nov 30, 2012 2:21pm EST

  * Euro hits 7-month high vs yen, more than 5-week high vs  dollar      * U.S. fiscal talks dominate traders attention      * Expectations of BoJ easing add to selling pressure on yen        By Wanfeng Zhou      NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - The euro rose to its highest in  more than five weeks against the dollar on Friday, heading for  its fourth straight month of gains, as investors clung to hopes  that U.S. politicians would reach a fiscal deal before the end  of the year.      The yen slumped and was on track for its worst month since  February against the dollar on speculation that a likely change  in Japan's government would lead to aggressive monetary easing.      For the past few weeks, financial markets have traded on  headlines from U.S. political leaders on the "fiscal cliff,"  which refers to tax hikes and spending cuts worth $600 billion  set to kick in early next year that could hurt the economy.      U.S. House of Representatives Speaker John Boehner said  Republicans and President Barack Obama are locked in a  stalemate. Obama blamed Republicans who control the House of  holding up a deal.        "The market is sort of anticipating that some kind of a  compromise will be reached before Dec. 31. That's the mindset of  the market right now," said Fabian Eliasson, vice president of  currency sales at Mizuho Corporate Bank in New York.      The euro rose 0.2 percent to $1.2998, having earlier  touched $1.3027 on Reuters data, its strongest level since Oct.  23. Traders reported offers at $1.3040-50.      For the month, the euro rose 0.3 percent against the dollar.      German lawmakers on Friday approved the latest Greek bailout  by a large majority, also helping euro sentiment. But the  outcome was widely expected.       Gains in Europe's shared currency came despite weak data  that included a sharp drop in German retail sales, a fall in  French consumer spending and record-high unemployment for the  euro zone.         The gloomy economic outlook for the euro zone should limit  further strength in the euro, analysts said.      "With unemployment still sitting at 11 percent in the euro  zone and inflation at just two percent, I can't see how the euro  can move up from here, other than people looking at an  alternative to the dollar," said Chris Gaffney, co-chief  investment officer at Everbank Wealth Management in St. Louis,  Missouri.      The euro dipped to session lows against the dollar after  weak U.S. personal income and spending data. The data dented the  market's risk appetite as investors sought the dollar for its  safety appeal.       "The disappointing data has dampened the modest enthusiasm  that major economies are gaining strength," said Joe Manimbo,  senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in  Washington. "The report also reinforces the fact that U.S.  growth in Q4 would be weak."       The dollar rose 0.5 percent to 82.51 yen, close to a  near eight-month high of 82.82 yen hit last week. It was on pace  for a gain of 3.4 percent in November, the biggest since  February.      The euro rose 0.7 percent to 107.25 yen. Earlier  it climbed to 107.66, its highest since late April. Traders  cited month-end demand for the euro from Japanese importers.       In November, the euro rallied 3.8 percent, the best month  since June against the yen.      Although main opposition leader Shinzo Abe, a front-runner  to become the new prime minister, seemed to have softened his  aggressive stance on Bank of Japan independence, he did  reiterate his desire for the bank to buy foreign bonds.         "The market is gearing up towards the Dec. 16 election,"  said Eliasson. He said with growing expectations for further  easing, the dollar could rise further to 85 to 87 yen if the  election goes as expected.        The dollar index ended the month of November up 0.3  percent after three straight months of losses.  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Lawmakers press for action in US-China trade talks

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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Lawmakers press for action in US-China trade talks
Nov 30th 2012, 20:03

WASHINGTON | Fri Nov 30, 2012 3:03pm EST

WASHINGTON Nov 30 (Reuters) - Four senior U.S. lawmakers on Friday pressed for action on longstanding trade irritants with China, as President Barack Obama's administration prepares to host senior Chinese officials next month for high-level talks.

"We have each written to you in the past about our key priorities and concerns," the top Republicans and Democrats on the House of Representatives Ways and Means Committee and the Senate Finance Committee said in a letter to senior Obama administration officials.

"While incremental progress has been made, our list of concerns remains troublingly similar year-to-year," the lawmakers said.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: Euro trims gains as US house speaker John Boehner speaks

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Euro trims gains as US house speaker John Boehner speaks
Nov 30th 2012, 18:02

NEW YORK | Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:02pm EST

NEW YORK Nov 30 (Reuters) - The euro slightly pared gains versus the dollar in early afternoon trade on Friday after U.S. House Speaker John Boehner said "there is a stalemate" in U.S. fiscal cliff talks and that President Barack Obama's proposal is not serious.

The euro traded as low as $1.2995 on Reuters data, off a session high of $1.3027. It was last at $1.3001, still up 0.2 percent on the day.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-US fiscal deadlock, data, stop stocks; euro gains

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GLOBAL MARKETS-US fiscal deadlock, data, stop stocks; euro gains
Nov 30th 2012, 18:19

Fri Nov 30, 2012 1:19pm EST

* U.S. stocks fall on soft economic data

* Euro higher on European outlook; Spanish, Greek yields steady

* U.S. Treasury yields fall

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Major stock indexes and Treasury yields fell on Friday as concern about the stalemate in crucial U.S. budget talks added to worries about slowing economic growth in the world's largest economy, though the euro rose on the European outlook.

Adding to global fears were weak data reports from Brazil and Canada.

The euro did fall to session lows against the dollar after data on U.S. consumer spending and income fell short of expectations, though it later recovered as investors focused on a better outlook for Europe after a deal between Greece and international lenders earlier in the week.

President Barack Obama accused a "handful of Republicans" in the House of Representatives on Friday of holding up legislation to extend tax cuts for middle-class Americans in order to try to preserve them for the wealthy.

"There is a stalemate; let's not kid ourselves," House Speaker John Boehner said on Friday, a month before the $600 billion "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts is set to kick in. His comments caused the euro to trim some gains.

"Washington brinkmanship and a delay in reaching an agreement on the 'fiscal cliff' are likely to rattle markets. These risks and uncertainties are likely to keep markets volatile," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 21.24 points, or 0.16 percent, at 13,000.58. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 2.80 points, or 0.20 percent, at 1,413.15. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 8.24 points, or 0.27 percent, at 3,003.78.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 1/32, the yield at 1.6147 percent. A private report on business activity in the Chicago area in November matched economists' forecasts, portending moderate growth for the U.S. economy. .

"These numbers were soft," said Ryan Sweet, senior economist with Moody's Analytics, shortly after the consumer spending data was released. "It's a sign that consumers are cautious. They are tightening their purse strings with the jobs market taking a step back. The 'fiscal cliff' will likely hit spending later even though it's not in the forefront of consumers' mind."

WORLD, EUROPEAN STOCKS SLIP

World and European stocks edged lower. The MSCI world equity index was down 0.05 percent at 332.18, though it was still near its highest level for November, having added almost 1 percent on Thursday.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares slipped 0.2 percent to 1,119.36, following Thursday's 1.1 percent gain, which took it to a four-month closing high.

Still, European shares are on course for their best month since August and a sixth straight monthly gain as sentiment over the outlook for Europe has improved since a deal was reached on aid to Greece earlier this week.

Those signs have also helped the euro, which was up 0.2 percent against the dollar to $1.3002 after climbing to a five-week high. The single currency touched a seven-month high against the yen.

Strong demand at an Italian bond auction this week, which cut Rome's borrowing costs to a two-year low, and falls in Spanish bond yields have encouraged investors to return to European assets.

Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields were stable at 5.268 percent and 4.484 percent respectively, well below their peak in July, when Spain's debt yielded more than 6 percent.

BRAZIL WEAKNESS

But elsewhere, the economic outlook was not so buoyant. Brazil's economy posted extremely disappointing growth in the third quarter, increasing pressure on President Dilma Rousseff to make deeper structural reforms and adding to fears that big emerging markets are getting dragged into the stagnant morass of the global economy.. The U.S. dollar rose 1.2 percent against the real.

Canada's economy lost some fizz in the third quarter as exports recorded their biggest drop in three years and businesses scaled back investments, though the slowdown is unlikely to knock the Bank of Canada off its rate-hike stance. The dollar gained 0.1 percent against the Canadian dollar.

The U.S. fiscal crisis remains the center of focus in oil markets due to its potential impact on demand from the world's biggest consumer. Crude was up ahead of the weekend.

Brent crude rose 0.1 percent to $110.87 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.5 percent to $88.56 a barrel.

"No significant progress seems to have been made in the U.S. budgetary dispute, which has led to profit-taking, especially since oil is trading at the upper end of its trading corridor," said Commerzbank oil analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Gold fell to $1,713.66 an ounce, buffeted by uncertainty over the U.S. budget crisis.

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Reuters: US Dollar Report: UPDATE 2-Mexico keeps interest rate on hold, softens hike threat

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UPDATE 2-Mexico keeps interest rate on hold, softens hike threat
Nov 30th 2012, 16:19

Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:19am EST

  * Banco de Mexico keeps key rate unchanged at 4.5 pct      * Central bank omits word "soon" on threat to hike rate      * Says reduction in inflation has been significant          MEXICO CITY, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Mexico's central bank backed  away from a threat to raise interest rates "soon" and left its  benchmark rate at 4.5 percent on Friday, as expected, predicting  inflation would fall to within its comfort zone by the end of  the year.      In a statement accompanying the decision, the Banco de  Mexico said a recent fall in inflation had been "remarkable" and  price risks had eased even as the growth outlook worsened.       The Banco de Mexico said in October it might raise rates  "soon" for the first time in four years if price pressures did  not abate, surprising investors with its tough tone.       Since then, inflation has eased from a 2-1/2 year high of  4.77 percent in September to 4.6 percent in October, although it  still marked five straight months above the central bank's 4.0  percent ceiling.      "If new shocks to inflation arise, even if they seem to be  transient, and the trend change in overall inflation and core  inflation is not consolidated, the board believes that it could  be appropriate to raise the benchmark interest rate," the  central bank said, removing the warning of "soon" from its  statement.      The yield on the two-year Mexican interest rate swap  , the most popular instrument to express a bet on  monetary policy, fell by the most in four months as investors  cut bets on an interest rate hike before mid-2014.       "All of the hawkish tone that suggested an imminent hike is  gone, it's very neutral," said Benito Berber, an economist at  Nomura Securities in New York.       He said the bank kept language about a possible rate hike in  the statement to signal to the market that they were serious  about shocks in inflation, even though these were reversing.      The Banco de Mexico has not moved rates since mid-2009 as  the economy recovered from a deep recession.                                 Prices have been under pressure from spikes in the cost of  eggs and chickens following an outbreak of avian flu in western  Mexico. But inflation eased further in early November, backing  the view of central bank governor Agustin Carstens that price  rises have peaked in Latin America's second-biggest economy.            GROWTH UNDER PRESSURE      The central bank also has less room to raise rates since the  economy is losing steam in the second half of the year, notching  3.3 percent growth in the third quarter as the global slowdown  finally begins to bite.       The finance ministry is forecasting a moderate expansion of  3.5 percent to 4.0 percent for the whole of 2012.      Concerns have risen this month that U.S. lawmakers could  fail to stave off impending tax increases and spending cuts set  to take effect next year. The so-called "fiscal cliff" could  drag down growth in the United States and hit demand for Mexican  exports, 80 percent of which are destined for U.S. markets.      In its statement, the central bank predicted that inflation  would end the year below 4.0 percent and would ease toward its  3.0 percent target in 2013, helped by the global slowdown's drag  on Mexican growth.       "Today's announcement confirms what we had in mind, which is  that you cannot move the benchmark rate when you have a global  economic scenario which is so uncertain," said JP Morgan  economist Gabriel Lozano.      The central bank said last month one of its main inflation  worries was a recent pick-up in salaries, where growth  accelerated to close to 5 percent annually in September.      In October, wage growth eased to 4.23 percent and  policymakers backpedaled, saying there was no evidence of  generalized pressures from a rise in inflation expectations or  from the labor market.  
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Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-US fiscal deadlock, data, stop stocks; euro gains

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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GLOBAL MARKETS-US fiscal deadlock, data, stop stocks; euro gains
Nov 30th 2012, 16:45

Fri Nov 30, 2012 11:45am EST

* U.S. stocks fall on soft economic data

* Euro higher on European outlook; Spanish, Greek yields steady

* U.S. Treasury yields fall

NEW YORK, Nov 30 (Reuters) - Major U.S. stock indexes and U.S. Treasury yields fell on Friday as concern about the stalemate in crucial U.S. budget talks and soft U.S. economic data added to worries about slowing economic growth in the world's largest economy.

The euro fell to session lows against the dollar after data on U.S. consumer spending and income fell short of expectations , though it later recovered as investors focused on a better outlook for Europe after a deal between Greece and international lenders earlier in the week.

U.S. President Barack Obama, reiterating his re-election campaign theme of protecting the middle class, heads to Pennsylvania on Friday to argue that Republicans could spoil Christmas by driving the country over the "fiscal cliff" of tax hikes and spending cuts set to kick in early next year.

"Washington brinkmanship and a delay in reaching an agreement on the 'fiscal cliff' are likely to rattle markets. These risks and uncertainties are likely to keep markets volatile," said John Praveen, chief investment strategist at Prudential International Investments Advisers LLC.

The Dow Jones industrial average was down 22.42 points, or 0.17 percent, at 12,999.40. The Standard & Poor's 500 Index was down 3.25 points, or 0.23 percent, at 1,412.70. The Nasdaq Composite Index was down 9.58 points, or 0.32 percent, at 3,002.45.

The benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasury note was up 1/32, the yield at 1.616 percent. A private report on business activity in the Chicago area in November matched economists' forecasts, portending moderate growth for the U.S. economy. .

"These numbers were soft," said Ryan Sweet, senior economist with Moody's Analytics, shortly after the consumer spending data was released. "It's a sign that consumers are cautious. They are tightening their purse strings with the jobs market taking a step back. The 'fiscal cliff' will likely hit spending later even though it's not in the forefront of consumers' mind."

WORLD, EUROPEAN STOCKS SLIP

World and European stocks edged lower. The MSCI world equity index was down 0.1 percent at 332.02, though it was still near its highest level for November, having added almost 1 percent on Thursday.

The FTSEurofirst 300 index of top European shares also slipped 0.1 percent to 1,120.89, following Thursday's 1.1 percent gain, which took it to a four-month closing high.

European shares are on course for their best month since August and a sixth straight monthly gain as sentiment over the outlook for Europe has improved since a deal was reached on aid to Greece earlier this week.

Those signs have also helped the euro, which was up 0.3 percent against the dollar to $1.3012 after climbing to a five-week high. The single currency touched a seven-month high against the yen.

Strong demand at an Italian bond auction this week, which cut Rome's borrowing costs to a two-year low, and falls in Spanish bond yields have encouraged investors to return to European assets.

Spanish and Italian 10-year bond yields were stable on Friday at 5.334 percent and 4.48 percent respectively, well below their peak in July, when Spain's debt yielded more than 6 percent.

OIL CONCERNS

Earlier, MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan rose 0.6 percent to its highest level since March 1, after a monthly gain of 2.1 percent.

The U.S. fiscal crisis remains the center of focus in oil markets due to its potential impact on demand from the world's biggest consumer. Crude was up ahead of the weekend.

Brent crude slipped 0.1 percent to $110.60 a barrel, while U.S. crude rose 0.3 percent to $88.31 a barrel.

"No significant progress seems to have been made in the U.S. budgetary dispute, which has led to profit-taking, especially since oil is trading at the upper end of its trading corridor," said Commerzbank oil analyst Carsten Fritsch.

Gold fell to $1,714.14 an ounce, buffeted by uncertainty over the U.S. budget crisis.

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