Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX- Dollar climbs to 4 1/2 yr high of 102 yen after G7, further gains eyed

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FOREX- Dollar climbs to 4 1/2 yr high of 102 yen after G7, further gains eyed May 13th 2013, 03:22 Sun May 12, 2013 11:22pm EDT * Dollar, euro near multi-year highs against yen * Aussie lacklustre, at 11-month low versus broadly strong dollar By Sophie Knight TOKYO, May 13 (Reuters) - The yen fell below the 102 level to the dollar on Monday after Tokyo escaped direct criticism of its aggressive monetary easing programme at the Group of Seven meeting over the weekend, putting the Japanese currency on track for further declines in the short run. The dollar rose 0.2 percent to 101.87 yen after breaking through reported resistance at 102 yen to jump as high as 102.15 in early Asian trade, its highest level since October 2008. "There was a feeling of 'at last!' when it passed 100 among investors who have been selling yen for the last month," said Bart Wakabayashi, head of forex at State Street. "Some people see 95 as the base of this trading range but it is possible 100 could become the bottom from here." Any wariness about selling the yen last week ahead of the G7 meeting vanished after Japan escaped censure for the aggressive monetary easing programme unleashed by the Bank of Japan on April 4. Britain's finance minister George Osborne said that the G7's pledge to not target exchange rates had been adhered to. Analysts and traders both say the dollar was tipped over the psychologically important 100 yen level last week due to signs of improvement in the U.S. labour market rather than as a result of the BOJ's actions. Data showing Japanese investors are buying more foreign assets also accelerated the yen's plunge on Friday. "Getting over 100 was largely due to dollar strength across the board, which makes it difficult to judge just where the dollar-yen is headed," said Minori Uchida, chief FX analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. Uchida said that the April 2009 high of 101.45 had been a focal point, but after the dollar sailed easily past that level on Friday there is little consensus on where the next block of resistance lies. "If or when it gets to 105 then people might start to say it's too weak--but on the other hand, people might be placated if the rally in the Nikkei continues," he added. The Japanese currency has lost 10 percent against the U.S. currency since the Bank of Japan announced a sweeping monetary expansion campaign on April 4, and has slid 27 percent since mid-November. The Nikkei has skyrocketed 71 percent in those six months. The dollar index edged up 0.1 percent to 83.231 on Monday after jumping to a six-week high of 83.438 on Friday, as the Antipodean currencies remained under pressure. The Australian dollar sagged 0.4 percent on Monday to $0.9979 after falling below parity on Friday to $0.9961, its lowest since June 2012. State Street's Wakabayashi said the Reserve Bank of Australia's surprise rate cut last week and lowering of its inflation forecast had somewhat knocked the shine off the currency. "The most attractive thing about the Aussie was the yield spread, so if that narrows it is obviously less desirable," he said. "Some people feel quite uncomfortable with it being above $1 and prefer to see its range as $0.80-$1," Wakabayashi added. The Kiwi was also off, losing 0.4 percent to $0.8273 and hanging near a two-month low tapped in the previous session after an admission of currency intervention from the central bank spooked investors last week. The euro slipped 0.1 percent to 132.19 yen after scaling 132.39 yen in early Asian trade, its highest since January 2010. Against the broadly strong dollar, the common currency dropped 0.1 percent to 1.2973, close to a one-month low of $1.2935 hit on Friday. Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints

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