Friday, June 28, 2013

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Dollar rises against yen, end-quarter trade dominates

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Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Dollar rises against yen, end-quarter trade dominates
Jun 28th 2013, 11:35

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Fri Jun 28, 2013 7:35am EDT

  * Dollar up versus yen, dips against the euro      * Fed's Dudley, Powell play down stimulus tapering plan      * Investors square positions on last trading day of quarter        By Anirban Nag      LONDON, June 28 (Reuters) - The dollar rose against the yen  but slipped against the euro in choppy trade on Friday, as  investors squared positions on the last trading day of the  quarter and the month.      The medium-term outlook remained in favour of the dollar  with investors increasingly pricing in the chances of the U.S.  Federal Reserve beginning to turn down the taps on its asset  purchase programme, perhaps from as early as September.      "Today is dominated by quarter-end flows and one should not  be reading too much into the price moves," said Chris Walker,  currency strategist at Barclays. Large funds rebalance their  investment portfolios at the end of the month and the quarter  and their flows and requirements to square positions often  dominate trade on the last trading day.       "The dollar's uptrend remains intact going into next quarter  as we are expecting Fed tapering to start in September. We  forecast euro/dollar to fall to $1.26 in six months and the  dollar to rise to 103 yen in the next three months," Walker  added.      Against the yen the dollar was up 0.8 percent at  99.10 yen, with near term resistance cited at the 55-day moving  average of 99.259 yen.       The dollar index, which tracks its performance against major  currencies, was up marginally at 82.934, not far off  Thursday's 83.171, a peak last reached on June 3. The index was  on track for its second straight week of gains.      But it lost some ground against the euro, with gains  in the dollar partly tempered by Federal Reserve officials, who  on Thursday sought to play down expectations that the central  bank was about to cut back its stimulus programme.          The euro was up 0.3 percent at $1.3070, with stop-loss sell  orders cited at $1.3020. Markets will focus on speeches by more  Fed speakers and U.S. data later in the day including Midwest  business activity and consumer sentiment for June.       Deutsche Bank said in a note that a recent drop in euro zone  government yields was likely to weigh on the euro.       Euro zone bonds, like yields on German Bunds, had risen with  U.S. Treasuries but they have started to fall this week after  several European Central Bank officials said that monetary  policy will remain accommodative.      "This (rise in yields) is now reversing, and so rate  differentials which were providing support for the  euro are longer doing so," Deutsche strategists said in a note.      Analysts said growing worries about the euro zone's  faltering economy, in contrast to the relative optimism around  the U.S. economy, could hurt the single currency.      This week European Central Bank President Mario Draghi  flagged up downside risks to growth and said the ECB was nowhere  near exiting its accommodative monetary policy.  
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