Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Dollar skids on greater chance of U.S. government shutdown

Reuters: US Dollar Report Reuters.com is your source for breaking news, business, financial and investing news, including personal finance and stocks. Reuters is the leading global provider of news, financial information and technology solutions to the world's media, financial institutions, businesses and individuals. // via fulltextrssfeed.com

Want free Kindle ebooks? Sign up to receive the best freebie Kindle ebook deals in your email every day. From our sponsors

FOREX-Dollar skids on greater chance of U.S. government shutdown Sep 30th 2013, 14:02 Mon Sep 30, 2013 10:02am EDT * Dollar index falls to lowest since February * Dollar struggles as U.S. government shutdown deadline looms * Political crisis in Italy weighs on euro * Euro to remain weighed by ECB policy By Julie Haviv NEW YORK, Sept 30 (Reuters) - The dollar dropped against a broad swath of currencies on Monday as an 11th-hour deal to resolve a Washington budget battle looked more unlikely, raising the possibility of a partial government shutdown. With a deadline to avert a federal government shutdown fast approaching, the U.S. Capitol was eerily quiet on Sunday as Republicans and Democrats waited for the other side to blink first and break the impasse over funding. The high-stakes brinkmanship in Congress will resume on Monday when the Democratic-controlled Senate reconvenes at 2 p.m. (1800 GMT). The dollar fell 0.5 percent against a basket of six major currencies to last trade at 80.108, not far from an earlier trough of 80.030, its lowest since February. "The potential of a government shutdown could result in a sustained fiscal drag on the economy that could push out any monetary policy normalization by the Federal Reserve," said Omer Esiner, chief market analyst at Commonwealth Foreign Exchange in Washington D.C. "Consequently, a government shutdown would likely weigh on the dollar, especially against traditional safe-haven assets like the Japanese yen and the Swiss franc," he said. In early New York trade, the dollar was down 0.5 percent at 97.72 yen after earlier hitting a one-month low of 97.48 yen. It also fell 0.2 percent against the Swiss franc at 0.9034 francs, not far from the 0.9018 francs hit last week, which was its lowest since April 2012. The U.S. funding standoff is a harbinger of the next big political battle: a far-more consequential bill to raise the federal government's borrowing authority. Failure to raise the $16.7 trillion debt ceiling by mid-October would force the United States to default on some payment obligations - an event that could cripple its economy and send shockwaves around the globe. Such a scenario should sink the dollar further. The euro was down 0.4 percent at 132.24 yen having earlier fallen to a three-week low of 131.33 yen. However, the euro gained against the dollar to trade 0.1 percent higher at $1.3538. The euro dominates the composition of the dollar index. Reflecting the market's nervousness, one-month euro/dollar implied volatility, a gauge of expected price swings and derived from option prices, rose sharply to around 7.40 vols, its highest since early September, up from 6.50 vols last week. The euro earlier had been weighed down by an Italian political crisis sparked by Silvio Berlusconi's withdrawal of his ministers from the government on Saturday and call for new elections, just seven months after the last vote. Prime Minister Enrico Letta will seek support in a confidence vote, probably on Wednesday. "We are in for a risk-off day as we have a bit of a nasty combination of U.S. and Italian political problems," said Arne Lohmann Rasmussen, head of FX research at Danske Bank. "This is positive for the yen, Swiss franc and sterling. We would not buy the dollar as a government shutdown would reduce the chances of the Federal Reserve 'tapering' its stimulus and that is dollar negative." The euro could come under further pressure if European Central Bank president Mario Draghi reiterates on Wednesday, when the bank announces its rate decision, that he stands ready to pump more liquidity into the economy if needed. Analysts at Morgan Stanley said that although they maintain their long euro position they "adopt a cautious approach. Indeed, the focus will also switch to the ECB meeting this week, where a dovish stance is expected," adding that a move above $1.3570 would be needed for further gains towards $1.3710. In the U.S., the political standoff over public finances looks far from a resolution with Republican legislators sticking to efforts to quash President Barack Obama's healthcare plan by withholding funds from the government. Latest weekly Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed currency speculators had cut their bets in favor of the dollar to the lowest net long in seven months. Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints

You are receiving this email because you subscribed to this feed at blogtrottr.com. If you no longer wish to receive these emails, you can unsubscribe from this feed, or manage all your subscriptions