Monday, October 8, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Dollar, yen recover on growth, earnings worries

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Dollar, yen recover on growth, earnings worries
Oct 8th 2012, 08:56

Mon Oct 8, 2012 4:56am EDT

  * Boost to riskier currencies from U.S. jobs data fades      * Stock markets ready for earnings season      * World Bank warns on China, Aussie dollar hits 3-month low      * Spain tops agenda as euro zone finance ministers meet        By Jessica Mortimer      LONDON, Oct 8 (Reuters) - The dollar and the safe-haven yen  rose on Monday on concerns about the outlook for the global  economy and company earnings, recouping losses from the previous  session that followed strong U.S. jobs data.      Investors were cautious as the third-quarter earnings season  gets under way and after the World Bank cut its growth forecasts  for the East Asia and Pacific region, warning a slowdown in  China could get worse.       The euro fell ahead of a meeting of euro zone finance  ministers as the euro zone's permanent bailout fund is launched.  Spain is expected to top the agenda at the gathering in  Luxembourg as uncertainty continues about when the country may  ask for a bailout.       The euro was down 0.5 percent at $1.2966,  pulling away from Friday's two-week high of $1.3072 hit after  data showing the U.S. unemployment rate fell to its lowest since  January 2009 boosted demand for riskier assets.       Traders said profit-taking set in on Monday, pushing the  single currency lower, although bids around $1.2950 were  expected to limit losses.      "People did not want to add to long risk positions ahead of  the long weekend, plus we have earnings season coming up so they  are starting the week on the cautious side," said Hans Redeker,  head of global currency strategy at Morgan Stanley.      Currency trading in the U.S. was expected to be thin on  Monday as bond markets will be closed for the Columbus Day  holiday. Share markets will be open, however.      The higher-yielding Australian dollar -  particularly sensitive to concerns about China given the  countries' close trading links - dropped to a three-month low of  $1.0149.      The euro slid more than 1 percent against the yen  , reaching a session low of 101.30 yen on trading  platform EBS, with traders reporting selling by a U.S.  investment bank.      It was also weighed down by comments by German Finance  Minister Wolfgang Schaeuble on Sunday that Chancellor Angela  Merkel's trip to Greece this week did not necessarily mean  Athens would receive the next tranche of aid under its bailout.         Morgan Stanley's Redeker expected the euro to pick up as the  European Central Bank's plan to buy peripheral bonds pushed down  Spanish borrowing costs. He expected chart support for the euro  from $1.2975 to $1.2945 and said Morgan Stanley expects the euro  to rise to $1.34 by year-end.      Uncertainty over when Spain will request aid has weighed on  the common currency because it do that before the ECB can start  buying its bonds.      The euro has climbed around 7.8 percent since hitting a  two-year low of $1.2042 in late July, bolstered by hopes for ECB  action to help quell the region's sovereign debt crisis.            DOLLAR FALLS VERSUS YEN      The dollar was up 0.3 percent against a basket of  currencies, with its index at 79.560. However, it fell  against the yen, erasing some of Friday's gains.      The dollar was down 0.45 percent at 78.30 yen, off  Friday's high of 78.88 yen when a rise in U.S. bond yields after  the U.S. jobs data pushed it higher.      "The impression I get is just above 79 there's a lot of  sellers," said Mitul Kotecha, head of global foreign exchange  strategy for Credit Agricole in Hong Kong. He said Friday's data  would not be enough to convince market participants that the  U.S. jobs market was headed toward a strengthening recovery.      According to a business sentiment survey published by the  Bank of Japan last week, the average dollar/yen exchange rate  assumption that major Japanese manufacturers are using in their  business plans for the six months to March 2013 is 78.97 yen.       That suggests Japanese exporters may want to sell the dollar  if it rises beyond that threshold, although they are unlikely to  be active on Monday, with Japanese markets also closed for a  holiday.  
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