Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro falls from high as Greek deal relief disappears

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FOREX-Euro falls from high as Greek deal relief disappears Nov 27th 2012, 15:28 Tue Nov 27, 2012 10:28am EST * EU/IMF agree on new debt target for Greece * Euro falls from 1-month high as market skepticism on deal grows * Yen weak after Japan opposition leader calls for bolder stimulus By Julie Haviv NEW YORK, Nov 27 (Reuters) - The euro fell against the dollar for the first time in five sessions on Tuesday, retreating from a one-month high as a deal to rescue Greece was offset by skepticism about the broader euro zone. It fell to a session low of $1.2922 after data showed that consumer confidence in the U.S. had risen to the highest in more that four years. The euro zone single currency briefly pierced the key psychological level of $1.30 on news of an agreement between euro zone finance ministers and the International Monetary Fund to reduce Greece's debt. The deal paves the way for the release of Greece's urgently needed aid loans. After 12 hours of talks, international lenders agreed on a package of measures to reduce Greek debt by more than 40 billion euros, projected to cut it to 124 percent of gross domestic product by 2020. "Going forward, the eyes of the financial world will closely watch Athens to see if it can follow through and implement more reforms to keep the bailout money flowing in the months ahead," said Joe Manimbo, senior market analyst at Western Union Business Solutions in Washington D.C. "Failure to do so would risk another flare-up in the Greek debt crisis and open to door to renewed losses for the single currency." The euro fell to a session low of $1.2928, well below a one-month high of $1.3009 struck earlier during the Asian session when the deal on Greek debt was agreed. It was last trading at $1.2942, down 0.2 percent on the day. The dollar was also bolstered after Federal Reserve Bank of Dallas President Richard Fisher, an arch-hawk, voiced concerns about the U.S. Federal Reserve's quantitative easing program at a conference in Berlin. Analysts however said the Greek deal would provide a temporary relief even as the worsening economic outlook for the euro zone under relentless austerity measures would keep the euro under pressure, especially against the dollar. "The initial reaction was positive for the euro as at first people were relieved that an agreement had been reached but looking at the details, sentiment has turned a bit sour," said Niels Christensen, FX strategist at Nordea. "The problem for Greece might be solved for the moment but there are bigger problems like Spain, and with the dire growth outlook for the euro zone, that will be very difficult to solve." Christensen also said the euro's failure to move decisively above $1.30 might have triggered some profit taking on long euro/dollar positions. This could wind-back the single currency's recent gains. Near-term support for the euro lay at its 55-day moving average of $1.29187. In the past two weeks, the euro has garnered support from expectations for a deal on Greece and also due to optimism that U.S. lawmakers would reach an agreement to avoid the so-called "fiscal cliff" of tax increases and spending cuts due to take effect at the beginning next year. Congress and the White House, however, remain at odds on a deal, and the uncertainty that results typically boosts the appeal of the safe-haven dollar. BUY ON DIPS FOR YEN Japan's opposition leader, Shinzo Abe, who is likely to become the country's next prime minister after an election next month, reiterated calls for bolder monetary and fiscal stimulus to revive the country's economy. That is expected to keep the yen under pressure, despite its slight recovery on Tuesday. The dollar was trading at 82.18 yen, up 0.2 percent on the day, below a 7-1/2 month high of 82.82 yen hit last Thursday. The Japanese currency has fallen sharply over the past couple of weeks on mounting speculation that a new government after Dec. 16 general elections will coerce the Bank of Japan into easing monetary policy aggressively. "We have seen a bit of a dip in dollar/yen this morning but in the medium term we remain bullish. I would view dips as opportunities to buy rather than something more permanent," said Saeed Amen, quantitative FX strategist at Nomura. He expects dollar/yen to be at around 85 yen by mid-2013. Data from the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that currency speculators increased their bearish bets against the yen in the week ended Nov. 20, a period when the Japanese currency began its slide. Link this Share this Digg this Email Reprints

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