Friday, October 25, 2013

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro hits 2-year high versus dollar, German Ifo awaited

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro hits 2-year high versus dollar, German Ifo awaited
Oct 25th 2013, 07:46

Fri Oct 25, 2013 3:46am EDT

  * Euro hits fresh 2-year high      * Dollar index sets fresh 8-1/2-month low      * German Ifo data in focus, could lift euro further      * But chart resistance seen for euro at $1.3833        By Jessica Mortimer      LONDON, Oct 25 (Reuters) - The euro rose to a two-year high  against a weak dollar on Friday before a German sentiment survey  that, if it points to a strengthening recovery, could boost the  single currency further.      The dollar fell broadly, hitting its lowest in nearly nine  months against a basket of currencies on expectations of  continued monetary stimulus from the the U.S. Federal Reserve.      The euro was up 0.1 percent at $1.3816 having hit  $1.3833, its strongest since November 2011.      Friday's $1.3833 peak coincided with the 61.8 percent  retracement of the euro's fall between May 2011 and July 2012,  which technical analysts said could offer stiff resistance.      Analysts said a strong German Ifo reading at 0800 GMT could  help the euro, though scope for gains may be limited. The  business climate index is expected to rise to 108.0 from 107.7.         "Even if the Ifo is a positive surprise it won't change the  ECB's expansionary stance and it may have a limited impact on  the euro," said Lutz Karpowitz, currency strategist at  Commerzbank in Frankfurt.      "There is still a theme of general dollar weakness and  euro/dollar is more of a dollar story. With disappointing U.S.  data you could see Fed tapering expectations pushed far into  next year."      The euro shrugged off data on Thursday showing the pace of  growth in euro zone business unexpectedly eased this month as  the recovery remains fragile elsewhere as well, with U.S.  manufacturing output dropping for the first time in four years.         There are concerns that the U.S. economy may have been hit  hard by the 16-day government shutdown earlier this month,  leaving the central bank reluctant to reduce monetary stimulus  any time soon.      The dollar index was down 0.1 percent at 79.124,  having dropped to 78.998, its lowest since early February.      Some analysts said the euro could be vulnerable to any signs  of the euro zone's tentative recovery losing steam, especially  with the currency's trade-weighted index at a  two-year high.      "Worse than expected euro zone and better than expected U.S.  data could underscore the downside risks for euro/dollar at  current levels," Citi currency strategist Valentin Marinov said  in a note to clients.      Against the yen, the dollar set a two-week low of 96.94 yen   and last stood at 97.01 yen, down 0.3 percent on the day.      Expectations for continued Fed stimulus have caused U.S.  bond yields to fall, eroding the dollar's attractiveness  compared with the yen.      But with the 10-year Japanese government bond yield   slipping below 0.60 percent on Thursday for the  first time since May 9, the yen could weaken on speculation that  Japanese investors will step up their overseas investments.  
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