Wednesday, July 18, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies gain on U.S. stimulus hopes

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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EMERGING MARKETS-Latam currencies gain on U.S. stimulus hopes
Jul 18th 2012, 17:03

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Wed Jul 18, 2012 1:03pm EDT

  By Walter Brandimarte      RIO DE JANEIRO, July 18 (Reuters) - Most Latin American  currencies gained on Wednesday as investors increased bets on  additional monetary stimulus by the U.S. Federal Reserve, a move  that often boosts dollar flows into emerging economies.      The Brazilian real  was little changed from  Tuesday's close, however, as investors awaited the release on  Thursday of minutes of the central bank's latest monetary policy  meeting for more clarity on interest-rate strategy this year.      The Mexican peso and the Chilean peso gained  0.3 percent and 0.5 percent, respectively, as key U.S. stock  indexes firmed, with investors hoping the Fed would eventually  deploy a third round of its bond-buying program to lower  financing costs and support the economy.      Expectations of additional stimulus grew as leading U.S.  corporations such as Bank of America and Honeywell   forecast a weakening economy will force them to further  cut costs in coming quarters.        The dimming U.S. economic outlook brought a different light  to the words of Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke, who repeated in  congressional testimony on Tuesday and Wednesday that the bank  could take additional action if it concludes the economy is not  making sufficient progress on job creation.       "Bernanke offered a repeat statement as to the Fed's  willingness to act if faced with a greater economic slowdown,  but refrained specifically from offering any additional signs of  quantitative easing," said Enrique Alvarez, head of strategy of  IDEAglobal in New York.      "After mulling the lack of any new signs in this sense, the  markets decided that Bernanke had in fact offered enough  evidence of more Fed action to come."            REAL STUCK IN NARROW RANGE      The Brazilian real edged up 0.2 percent to 2.0176 per U.S.  dollar, however, as investors had little incentive to take the  currency out of the narrow range it has traded in for the past  two weeks under the threat of central bank intervention.      "The currency market is stuck within this range of 2.00-2.10  and investors have no reason to trade here, as you can't make  any money like that," said Jankiel Santos, chief economist at  BES Investimento in Sao Paulo.      In the past few weeks, the Brazilian central bank has  intervened heavily whenever the real weakens to near 2.1 per  dollar. On the other hand, it has also said that a currency  stronger than 2 per greenback would hurt exporters.       Uncertainty on whether the Brazilian central bank would  resort to even lower interest rates and a weaker currency to  support the economy this year has also kept investors cautious.      Brazil last week cut its base Selic rate to an all-time low  of 8 percent, and minutes of the bank's latest meeting are  expected to shed light on how much lower rates may go this year.                Latin American FX prices from Reuters at 1650 GMT:         Currencies                            daily %     YTD %                                          change    change                                Latest               Brazil real                  2.0184      0.15     -7.43                                                     Mexico peso                 13.1099      0.34      6.56                                                     Argentina peso*              6.6500     -0.75    -28.87                                                     Chile peso                 487.2000      0.53      6.59                                                     Colombia peso            1,776.2000      0.24      9.13                                                     Peru sol                     2.6190      0.04      2.98                                                     * Argentine peso's rate between                           brokerages  
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