Monday, July 2, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Euro down vs dollar and yen; doubts over EU deal

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Euro down vs dollar and yen; doubts over EU deal
Jul 2nd 2012, 12:33

Mon Jul 2, 2012 8:33am EDT

  * Euro down vs dollar after surge on Friday      * Market players start to question EU summit deal      * PMI data confirms euro zone manufacturing slowdown        NEW YORK, July 2 (Reuters) - The euro slipped against the  dollar o n Monday, after fiscally strong Finland and the  Netherlands opposed a plan for the euro zone's permanent bailout  fund to buy government bonds in the secondary market.      That injected fresh uncertainty over last week's summit deal  to tackle the debt crisis in which European leaders decided that  rescue funds would be available to stabilize bond markets.      That, along with moves towards a common banking union, had  triggered the euro's biggest single-day percentage rise in eight  months against the dollar on F riday.       Even amid those gains however, traders had cautioned the  euro was likely to stay under pressure ahead of a European  Central Bank meeting this week, when the bank is expected to  ease policy.       U.S. markets will be closed on Wednesday for the U.S.  Independence Day holiday which may also lower liquidity the day  before the ECB meeting.       But as New York trading begain on Monday investor sentiment  was dominated by the Finnish government saying that the rescue  fund's bond buying from secondary markets would require  unanimity and that seems unlikely because both Finland and the  Netherlands are opposed.       "The juxtaposition of a holiday-broken week in the U.S. with  the amount of economic information we are going to receive this  week is making risk taking extremely dangerous," said Brad  Bechtel, managing director at Faros Trading in Stamford,  Connecticut.        "The tape bombs out of Europe that are likely to persist, as  always, will make things even worse," Bechtel said. "Already  last night we had the Finnish and Dutch on the wires reiterating  that ESM bond buying will be decided on a case by case basis,  underlying their negative view on bond buying generally."       The euro was last trading at $1.2588, down 0.6 percent on  the day.       The ECB is expected to cut its main refinancing rate by 25  basis points to 0.75 percent o n Thursday, with expectations that  the deposit rate it pays banks to park cash overnight may also  be cut, to zero.       Some players are hoping the ECB will also announce fresh  stimulus measures to shore up the faltering euro zone economy.  The market will be disappointed if the ECB fails to deliver on  those expectations, analysts said.      Data on Monday showed euro zone manufacturing suffered in  June and jobs were cut at the fastest rate in two-and-a-half  years.       The single currency fell 0.5 percent against the yen to  100.50 yen. On Friday, the euro posted its biggest  one-day rise against the yen since March 2011. T h ere was talk of  profit-taking in the euro against the yen by hedge funds,  traders said.            EUPHORIA FADES      The euro surged around 1.8 percent against the dollar on  Friday, after leaders agreed to let Europe's rescue fund inject  aid directly into stricken banks from next year and intervene on  bond markets to support troubled member states.      But details were sketchy and questions remained whether,  even if authorized by member states to do so, the rescue fund  would have enough money to provide a firewall from a debt  contagion that could ensnare larger peripheral economies.       Many market players said the euro's rally could fade,  especially if peripheral bond yields started to climb back  toward recent euro-era highs. Italian and Spanish 10-year yields  slipped on Monday but their funding costs remain high in  historical terms.      "The optimism will fade as the week unfolds and if yields in  Italy and Spain increase there will be further pressure on  euro/dollar," said Lutz Karpowitz, FX strategist at Commerzbank  in London.      "It (the deal) is just spending more money from donor  countries and receiving more money from debt-ridden countries.  This will lead to political friction and is not a long-term  solution."      Growth-linked currencies recovered from data on Sunday  showing Chinese factory activity slowed to seven-month lows in  June, with the outcome not as bad as feared..  Th e Australian dollar was last up 0.1 percent at  US$1.0244, having hit a two-month high earlier in the session.      The yen showed little reaction to news that Japanese  political heavyweight Ichiro Ozawa and 51 other lawmakers will  quit the ruling party over a plan to increase sales  tax.       The government will still retain its majority in the  powerful lower house of parliament and the currency appeared to  shrug off concerns over political uncertainty.      The dollar was last little changed 79.81 yen, staying  below a two-month high of 80.59 yen hit a week ago.  
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