Tuesday, October 1, 2013

Reuters: US Dollar Report: CANADA FX DEBT-C$ ends weaker after central bank cuts growth outlook

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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CANADA FX DEBT-C$ ends weaker after central bank cuts growth outlook
Oct 1st 2013, 20:39

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Tue Oct 1, 2013 4:39pm EDT

  * C$ at C$1.0325 vs US$, or 96.85 U.S. cents      * Investors wary as U.S. federal government in partial  shutdown      * Bank of Canada sees 2-2.5 pct annualized growth in Q3 and  Q4      * Bond prices mostly lower across the curve          By Leah Schnurr      TORONTO, Oct 1 (Reuters) - The Canadian dollar weakened on  Tuesday after the Bank of Canada cut its third-quarter economic  growth forecast and as a partial government shutdown began in  the United States, the first in 17 years.      The Bank of Canada's Senior Deputy Governor Tiff Macklem  said the central bank now expects annualized growth in the third  and fourth quarters to be in the 2 percent to 2.5 percent range  before strengthening next year.      The outlook points to interest rates remaining low. The  central bank has held rates unchanged at 1 percent since  September 2010.       "We're definitely at a point where exports aren't developing  and growing at the rate the Bank of Canada would like," said  Scott Smith, senior market analyst at Cambridge Mercantile Group  in Calgary.      "What's really happened today is we got confirmation from  the Bank of Canada that they will be on hold for longer than I  think the markets had anticipated," he said.      Adding to investor unease was a partial government shutdown  south of the border as U.S. federal agencies were directed to  cut back services after lawmakers could not break a political  stalemate to keep government operations funded.       Investors are concerned about the impact such a shutdown  could have on the still-fragile U.S. economic recovery. The  uncertainty pushed the greenback down 0.1 percent against a  basket of currencies.      While the markets may be able to shrug off a shutdown that  lasts only a couple of days, analysts say a closure that drags  on longer than that will start to bite into growth in the United  States, Canada's biggest trading partner.      The Canadian dollar ended the session at C$1.0325,  or 96.85 U.S. cents, weaker than Monday's close of C$1.0303, or  97.06 U.S. cents.       The shutdown also cast uncertainty on two other points of  focus for markets: the looming deadline to raise the U.S. debt  ceiling and the potential path of the Federal Reserve's economic  stimulus program.      The next big political battle lawmakers face is raising the  $16.7 trillion debt ceiling by mid-October. Failure to do so  would force the United States to default on some payment  obligations and Tuesday's government shutdown stoked concerns  about U.S. politicians' ability to come to any agreement.      While the political wrangling has shifted some attention  away from monetary policy, analysts were also trying to gauge  what impact a drawn-out shutdown could have on the Fed's current  efforts to prop up the economy.      The U.S. central bank surprised markets last month by  holding the pace of its $85 billion a month in bond purchases  steady. Given the uncertainty over fiscal policy, the Fed is  unlikely to announce a reduction in purchases at its next  meeting later this month, Smith added.      "October at this point is definitely off the table and we're  looking toward at least December, maybe even January 2014 now,"  Smith said. "Had the Fed moved to taper in September, we might  be getting more of a shock than we are in the markets."      The loonie for now is likely to trade in a range between the  high C$1.03 level and the mid-C$1.02 area, he said.      Prices for Canadian government bonds were mostly lower  across the maturity curve. The two-year bond was down  half a Canadian cent to yield 1.195 percent and the benchmark  10-year bond slipped 6 Canadian cents to yield 2.551  percent.  
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