Friday, May 4, 2012

Reuters: US Dollar Report: FOREX-Dollar drops vs yen on jobs data, euro tumbles broadly

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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FOREX-Dollar drops vs yen on jobs data, euro tumbles broadly
May 4th 2012, 18:44

Fri May 4, 2012 2:44pm EDT

  * U.S. economy adds 115,000 jobs in April, well below  forecast      * Yen soars on safe-haven flows; Aussie, kiwi tumble      * Weak data, weekend elections keep euro vulnerable          By Julie Haviv            NEW YORK, May 4 (Reuters) - The dollar slumped against the  yen, but gained against growth-linked currencies in volatile  trading on Friday after U.S. jobs data provided further evidence  the economic recovery was losing momentum.            A third straight monthly decline in U.S. hiring growth also  weighed on the euro, which fell for a fifth straight session  against the greenback and tumbled against the yen, ahead of the  weekend's key political elections in France and Greece.                U.S. employers added 115,000 workers last month, well below  expectations of 170,000. The data followed a string of weak  readings on the economy that fueled speculation of more monetary  stimulus from the Federal Reserve.             "On balance, it was a disappointing report," said Vassili  Serebriakov, currency strategist at Wells Fargo in New York. "It  looks like it's kind of a risk-off environment where the yen is  doing well."          The dollar last traded down 0.4 percent at 79.86 yen,  but against the Australian and New Zealand dollars it gained 0.8  percent and 0.6 percent, respectively, as investors shed riskier  currencies that are highly linked to global growth.           Some analysts said the jobs data, combined with recent  weaker-than-expected services sector and first-quarter economic  growth data, may spur the Federal Reserve to embark on a third  round of bond buying to spur growth. Others downplayed the  scenario of further so-called quantitative easing, but said it  should make the central bank maintain the policy status quo.                                        EURO SWOONS BEFORE ELECTIONS              The euro fell as low as $1.3078, its lowest since April 19,   and last traded at $1.3084, down 0.5 percent. Against the yen,  the euro was down 0.9 percent at 104.48, down 0.9  percent.              The most immediate risk for the euro comes from this  weekend's French and Greek elections. Opinion polls showed  socialist Francois Hollande will be elected as the next French  president.            In Greece, surveys showed no clear winner emerging from the  elections, with the two parties garnering barely enough seats  for a parliamentary vote.             "We have been focused on the short euro/dollar trade over  the last two weeks, and it is starting to work," said Jens  Nordvig, global head of foreign exchange strategy at Nomura  Securities in New York.       "A Hollande victory could be a catalyst for additional  weakness, depending on what he says, and a split parliament in  Greece would also be a negative," he said. "We think a break of  $1.30 is highly likely in coming weeks."              The euro has been trading in a tight range of $1.30 to $1.34  in recent weeks but analysts said worries about a deepening  recession in the euro zone suggest a break lower.             Indeed, adding to pressure on the euro was a survey showing  the bloc's services sector contracted much more than initially  thought in April, with particularly weak figures out of Italy  and Spain.            An increased bias for euro puts, or bets on a currency  depreciating, was evident in the options market, with  three-month risk reversals trading at -2.325 vols,  up from -2.3 vols the previous day and -2.1 vols a week earlier.  
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