Wednesday, October 16, 2013

Reuters: US Dollar Report: GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks jump, bill prices up as U.S. debt deal close

Reuters: US Dollar Report
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GLOBAL MARKETS-Stocks jump, bill prices up as U.S. debt deal close
Oct 16th 2013, 16:50

Wed Oct 16, 2013 12:50pm EDT

  * Washington may be closing in on deal to resolve debt  crisis      * Wall Street up more than 1 pct, global stock index climbs      * U.S. dollar up against yen          By Caroline Valetkevitch      NEW YORK, Oct 16 (Reuters) - World equity markets rose and  short-term U.S. Treasury debt rallied on Wednesday as lawmakers  neared a last-minute deal to prevent the United States from  defaulting on its debt.      U.S. Senate Majority leader Harry Reid said a bipartisan  compromise was reached in the Senate to lift the government's  $16.7 trillion borrowing limit and re-open the government, which  has been shuttered since October 1.       News that a deal had emerged was enough to push U.S. stocks  within striking distance of an all-time high. It comes after  days of political wrangling over the U.S. budget and the debt  limit, which has sparked substantial preparation by dealers in  government securities in case of a default.      "Any deal that gets us out of the current box, where we have  a potential imminent default, is good," said Cam Albright,  director of asset allocation at Wilmington Trust Investment  Advisors in Wilmington, Delaware.      Even though final passage may come after the Treasury's  Thursday deadline for being able to borrow, it will end up  making this back-and-forth similar to the fiscal ceiling debate  in 2012, or the extensive preparations to prepare technology  systems for the so-called Y2K millennium bug in 2000.          The fixed income market has busied itself with preparations  in case of a missed coupon payment, which would reverberate  through the short-term repurchase market, a key source of  overnight funding for banks and other institutions that depend  on the use of Treasury securities as collateral.       That market was effectively shut when Lehman Brothers  collapsed in 2008 and endured severe strains in 2011 during the  previous debt ceiling crisis.       "People were staying up all night worried about what would  happen during (the Y2K) deadline. Then nothing happened," said  David Keeble, global head of interest rate strategy with Credit  Agricole Corporate & Investment Bank in New York.            "In this case, all the switching out of T-bills and dealings  with repos would be for naught if we don't default."          The sharp decline on Wednesday in near-term Treasury bill  yields underscored the fluidity of the back-and-forth in  Washington. Yields on Treasury bills maturing on Oct. 24 spiked  as high as 0.71 percent in the morning before reversing  dramatically to yield 0.30 percent - still elevated, but nowhere  near as stressed.       However, the difference between bid and offer prices in the  short-term rates market and the repo market were elevated,  widening to about 10 basis points. They normally trade around a  1-basis-point gap. Activity in the repo market was quiet,  according to brokers, because traders were waiting for the  outcome of the negotiations in Washington.      The CBOE Volatility index, Wall Street's fear index,  fell 15 percent to 15.87.      The Dow Jones industrial average was up 183.28  points, or 1.21 percent, at 15,351.29. The Standard & Poor's 500  Index was up 20.90 points, or 1.23 percent, at 1,718.96.  The Nasdaq Composite Index was up 43.08 points, or 1.14  percent, at 3,837.09.       MSCI's world equity index, which tracks  shares in 45 countries, was up 0.65 percent, not far from a  five-year peak of 391.54 hit on Sept 19.      Worries over whether a resolution will be reached have  roiled markets, and late on Tuesday Fitch Ratings warned it  could cut the U.S. sovereign rating from AAA, citing the  impasse.      If Washington did not reach a deal by Thursday, the U.S.  government will by law no longer be able to add to the national  debt and will have to rely on incoming revenue and about $30  billion in cash to pay the country's many obligations.       That money is expected to run out quickly and the government   would start missing payments in the weeks ahead.       The uncertainty remained apparent in the U.S. debt market,  where the cost of insuring one-year U.S. debt against default  using credit default swaps recently hit its highest in over two  years.      The owners of more than 20 U.S. Treasury securities are seen  most at risk as the U.S. Congress struggles to resolve the  impasse, with the Federal Reserve almost certainly the largest  holder.       Even if a deal is reached, it must still clear the full  Senate and possible procedural snags on Wednesday before moving  to the fractious House of Representatives, which was unable to  produce its own deal on Tuesday.      With a large interest payment due at the end of the month  and $58 billion in other obligations coming due the following  day, many analysts have circled Oct. 31 as a possible date for  default if Congress has still failed to reach an agreement.          The dollar rose against major currencies. The euro   was down 0.2 percent against the dollar at $1.3493.      In the Treasury market, benchmark 10-year U.S. Treasuries   were up 3/32, their yield at 2.7092 percent.      Gold prices dropped on expectations of a deal in Washington.  Spot gold fell 0.6 percent to $1,272.40 an ounce.      U.S. crude oil futures gained more than 1 percent as  Congress closed in on a deal. Brent crude futures gained  0.8 percent to $110.88 a barrel, while U.S. crude oil futures   gained 1.2 percent to $102.43 a barrel  
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